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Reliability level predicting method and system of wind generating set

A wind turbine and reliability technology, which is applied in electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the difficulty of wind turbine reliability level and future trends, and the accuracy of wind turbine reliability level is difficult to guarantee. And other issues

Active Publication Date: 2018-01-23
XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCI & TECH
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  • Abstract
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

However, due to the complexity of the working conditions of wind turbines, it is becoming more and more difficult to grasp the overall reliability level and future trends of wind turbines in wind farms around the world, and it is difficult to guarantee the accuracy of the reliability level prediction of wind turbines

Method used

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  • Reliability level predicting method and system of wind generating set
  • Reliability level predicting method and system of wind generating set
  • Reliability level predicting method and system of wind generating set

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Embodiment Construction

[0017] The present invention may have various modifications and various embodiments, and it should be understood that the present invention is not limited to these embodiments, but includes all modifications, equivalents and replacements within the spirit and scope of the present invention.

[0018] The terms used in the example embodiments of the present invention are for describing specific embodiments only, and are not intended to limit the example embodiments. As used herein, the singular forms are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly dictates otherwise.

[0019] figure 1 is a flowchart of a method for predicting a reliability level of a wind power generating set according to an example embodiment of the present invention.

[0020] refer to figure 1 , in step 101, a plurality of predetermined change states of the reliability index are set. Specifically, a plurality of predetermined change states are set according to change amounts of ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a reliability level predicting method and system of a wind generating set. The method comprises the steps that multiple preset changing states of a reliability index are set; based on historical data of a time window of the reliability index, transition probability matrixes of multiple changing states are calculated; based on the historical data of the time window, the probability distribution expectation of each changing state in the multiple changing states is calculated; based on the transition probability matrixes, all transition probabilities related to the currentstate are acquired; based on the probability distribution expectation and the transition probabilities, comprehensive state expectation related to the current state is calculated; based on the comprehensive state expectation and the current value of the reliability index, a prediction value of the reliability index is calculated. According to the reliability level predicting method and system ofthe wind generating set, the variable quantity between the values of the reliability index after and before a time can be used as a Markov'state', and accordingly the reasonable and accurate prediction result can be obtained.

Description

technical field [0001] The following description relates to a field of wind power, and in particular, relates to a method and system for predicting the reliability level of a wind power generating set. Background technique [0002] Wind power is increasingly used to solve current prominent energy and environmental issues. With the wide application of wind turbines, the operating environment of wind turbines is becoming more and more diverse, and the configuration of wind turbines is becoming more and more complex, which makes it more and more necessary to predict the reliability level of wind turbines. Level forecasting formulates rectification strategies for wind turbines to effectively ensure the reliability requirements of wind turbines. However, due to the complexity of the working conditions of wind turbines, it is becoming more and more difficult to grasp the overall reliability level and future trends of wind turbines in wind farms around the world, and it is difficu...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
Inventor 董兆宇石峰毓
Owner XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCI & TECH
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