A power transformer time-varying outage risk assessment method considering weather factors

Abstract

The invention provides a power transformer time-varying outage risk assessment method considering weather factors. The method comprises the following steps: S1, establishing a comprehensive meteorological risk index system influencing the operation state of the power transformer; S2, according to the aging failure probability and accidental failure probability of the power transformer, obtaining the comprehensive time-varying operation failure probability of the power transformer; S3,using synthetic meteorological risk index to modify the synthetic time-varying operation failure probability ofthe power transformer, and obtaining the time-varying outage risk assessment model of the power transformer considering weather factors. According to the power transformer time-varying outage risk assessment method of the present invention, the meteorological factors which have great influence on the stable operation of transformer are quantified, and the fault outage model of transformer considering normal aging and accidental fault is optimized by using the synthesized meteorological risk index, and the time-varying outage risk model considering weather factors is obtained to make the riskassessment of transformer more accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power system operation risk assessment, in particular to a time-varying outage risk assessment method for power transformers. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of the power system, the scale of the system is getting larger and the structure is more and more complex. Any accident may bring serious harm to the power system, and even bring great harm to the whole society. Therefore, it is very important to discover the risks of safe operation in time and take countermeasures as soon as possible to ensure the safe operation of the power system and reliable power supply to users. The power transformer is one of the core equipment in the power system, and its operation reliability is directly related to the safety and stability of the entire power grid, so the risk assessment of power transformer outage becomes particularly important. [0003] In the reliability evaluation of traditional powe...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In the reliability evaluation of traditional power transformers, the failure rate of the transformer usually takes a constant value. However, in the actual operating environment, the failure rate is a time variable, especially in extreme weather environments, the failure rate will change greatly, so in the transformer It is necessary to consider weather factors in risk assessment; risk assessment is the basis of transformer risk maintenance, and many scholars have established emerging transformer state assessment models. Weibull distribution and Markov model are commonly used to describe the normal aging of transformers. and accidental failure process, these two methods have achieved good results in a single process, but they cannot describe the comprehensive influence of various factors in actual operation

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