LNG safety risk assessment system based on Bayesian network

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of risk analysis, in particular to an LNG safety risk assessment system based on a Bayesian network. The system comprises an onshore LNG safety accident analysis module which is used for analyzing all possible risk factors of an onshore LNG danger source, and analyzing and calculating a fire safety accident possibly caused by the onshore LNG danger source; an overwater LNG safety accident analysis module which is used for analyzing and calculating all possible risk factors of the overwater LNG dangerous source and analyzing and calculating the fire safety accidents possibly caused by the overwater LNG dangerous source; an accident consequence calculation module which is used for calculating an accident consequence; a risk analysis module which is used for analyzing and calculating the personal risks and the social risks and drawing an overall personal risk distribution graph and a social risk F-N graph. According to the present invention, the quantitative risk analysis can be carried out on the land and water LNG fixed dangerous sources and the mobile dangerous sources, the scientific reference is provided for the LNG related facility safety, LNG loading and unloading operation and LNG ship shipping traffic, and the important guiding significance is achieved for the prevention and control of the LNG safety accidents of the related departments.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of risk analysis, and more specifically, relates to a Bayesian network-based LNG safety risk assessment system. Background technique [0002] In order to adjust the energy structure and promote energy conservation and emission reduction, natural gas occupies an increasingly important position in the energy structure system. By 2018, the proportion of natural gas in the energy structure increased to 8.1%. Comprehensively promote the interconnection of pipeline natural gas, and realize the supply and demand guarantee between different oil companies and the north and south regions. In addition, vigorously develop new and expanded liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving station projects. As of 2018, the number of LNG receiving stations will increase from 10 in 2006 to 31, and will increase to 39 by 2023. In order to widely promote the application of LNG, realize the loading and unloading of LNG in ordinar...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, most of the quantitative risk assessments of LNG projects in my country use foreign safety assessment software, which has great limitations in use scenarios and risk analysis

It is especially important that the probability of occurrence of safety accidents is greatly affected by the surrounding environment. At present, the statistical probability of relevant accidents is lacking in China, and the accuracy of the risk assessment process is limited. It is difficult to consider the impact of different risk factors on the overall regional risk.

Images