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Method and device for predicting epidemic situation data in a segmented mode, medium and electronic equipment

An epidemic and data technology, applied in computer storage media and electronic equipment, in the field of devices for segmented prediction of epidemic data, can solve problems such as inability to obtain Rt estimates

Pending Publication Date: 2020-08-04
YIDU CLOUD (BEIJING) TECH CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, related techniques can only calculate past R t , without access to future R t estimate

Method used

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  • Method and device for predicting epidemic situation data in a segmented mode, medium and electronic equipment
  • Method and device for predicting epidemic situation data in a segmented mode, medium and electronic equipment
  • Method and device for predicting epidemic situation data in a segmented mode, medium and electronic equipment

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specific Embodiment approach

[0091] In an exemplary embodiment, the specific implementation of determining the target fitting function among multiple fitting functions through the above-mentioned blind test items includes:

[0092] According to the above-mentioned multiple fitting functions, the epidemic data corresponding to the preset P consecutive times are respectively fitted and predicted, and the fitting of each of the fitting functions corresponding to the preset P consecutive times is obtained value; the fitting value corresponding to each of the fitting functions is compared with the blind test item, and the deviation value corresponding to each of the fitting functions is obtained; and the fitting function corresponding to the minimum deviation value is used as the The target fitting function.

[0093] Exemplary, refer to Figure 6 , the blind test item is represented through the S3 stage, wherein the curve L part of the S3 stage represents the actual value of the blind test item [R 19 , R 20...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method and device for predicting epidemic situation data in a segmented mode, a computer readable medium and electronic equipment, and relates to the technical field of medical data processing. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring an effective regeneration number corresponding to each unit time of a target disease in N continuous unit periods to obtain a first sequence containing N effective regeneration numbers, N being an integer greater than 2; segmenting the first sequence to obtain a plurality of sub-sequences, and determining a fitting function corresponding to each sub-sequence according to the segmented sub-sequences; and predicting epidemic data of the target disease based on the plurality of fitting functions. According to the technical scheme, the epidemic situation data can be subjected to related prediction on the basis of the effective regeneration number, so that the method has more practical application significance; meanwhile, the effective regeneration number is fitted in a segmented mode, prediction is achieved on the basis of multiple fitting functions, the prediction accuracy can be improved, and the epidemic situation data prediction accuracy is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present disclosure relates to the technical field of medical data processing, in particular, to a method for predicting epidemic data by segment, a device for predicting epidemic data by segment, and a computer storage medium and electronic equipment for realizing the above method. Background technique [0002] In related technologies, it is handled by an epidemic spreading model (such as the SEIR model). The SEIR model builds a functional relationship based on the number of individuals in the infection state, incubation period, infection period, and isolation state, combined with the length of the incubation period and the infection period, and uses these parameters to calculate the value of the basic reproduction number R0. Among them, the basic reproduction number R0 refers to the number of people that an average patient can infect during a disease cycle in an environment where all susceptible people are in the absence of intervention. As time ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80
CPCG16H50/80
Inventor 焦晓康
Owner YIDU CLOUD (BEIJING) TECH CO LTD
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