Engineering project cost prediction method based on Markov grey model

Abstract

The invention relates to an engineering project cost prediction method based on a Markov grey model. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring an original data column X(0); predicting the gray scale of the original data column X(0); obtaining an absolute value data column epsilon(0) of the residual error; performing gray scale prediction on the residual absolute value data column epsilon(0); constructing a new equation in combination with gray prediction of the original data column X(0) and a gray prediction equation of the residual absolute value data column epsilon(0), and solvingto obtain a residual symbol function sgn(k) of gray prediction; and combining and constructing a final prediction equation, and solving the final prediction equation to obtain a prediction value of the original data column X(0). According to the invention, prediction of a set cost index can be realized; and the Markov model-based residual error correction model introduced into the model can well correct the prediction deviation of the original GM(1, 1) grey prediction model, higher prediction precision is realized, and the future cost of the project is effectively estimated, so that an effective reference basis is provided for the cost management decision in the construction process of the engineering project.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of engineering project management, and in particular relates to an engineering project cost prediction method based on a Markov gray model. Background technique [0002] In the fierce market competition, the core competitiveness of enterprises is profitability. In the case of the overall sluggish market in the construction industry, effective control of project costs and reduction of project costs are the key to enhancing the competitiveness of construction companies. the core issue. [0003] In order to achieve long-term development, construction enterprises must strengthen the cost control of engineering projects, so as to improve the economic benefits of engineering projects and improve the core competitiveness of enterprises themselves. At present, among the cost management technologies actually applied in domestic engineering projects, more emphasis is placed on the establishment of cost ledgers and ot...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, among the cost management technologies actually applied in domestic engineering projects, more emphasis is placed on the establishment of cost ledgers and other post-control links, lacking the ability to fully mine existing cost data to achieve forward-looking control. This lack of forward-looking control capabilities The main reason is the lack of effective technical means to realize the accurate estimation of the future cost of engineering projects

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