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Geomagnetic Ap index mid-term forecasting method

A technology of ap index and geomagnetism, which can be applied in complex mathematical operations and other directions, and can solve the problems of complex control factors of geomagnetic disturbance.

Active Publication Date: 2020-09-08
NAT SATELLITE METEOROLOGICAL CENT
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  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0007] The controlling factors of geomagnetic disturbance are complex, such as the long-period background evolution, the periodic influence of 27-day coronal hole high-speed flow, the magnetic storm process caused by CME with strong randomness, etc., and the superposition of two factors, etc. poses a great challenge

Method used

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Embodiment

[0058] see figure 1 , the present embodiment provides a method for medium-term forecasting of the geomagnetic Ap index, comprising the following steps:

[0059] 1) Ap index predictions formed by related processes, including Ap index predictions related to background, coronal holes and CMEs;

[0060] 2) Integrated forecasting of overlapping processes;

[0061] 3) Forecast result generation UV index generation.

[0062] Let the forecast day be the 0th day, and the Ap index is recorded as Ap0; the previous i-th day is the -i day, and the Ap index is recorded as Ap-i; the Ap value from the 0th day is the forecast value. Read the Ap index of the relevant date, the value in the 22nd column is the Ap index.

[0063] The background Ap index forecast includes:

[0064] Forecast the Ap index on the i-th day, that is, Ap i , if Ap i-27 ≤8, and Ap i-54 ≤8, then there are:

[0065]

[0066] If App i-54 ≤8, and Ap i-27 determined to be CME impacted, then

[0067] AP i =Ap i-...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a geomagnetic Ap index mid-term forecasting method. The method comprises the following steps: forecasting an Ap index formed in a related process; comprehensively forecasting the overlapping process; and generating an ultraviolet index according to a forecasting result. According to the invention, geomagnetic Ap index evolution trends under different solar activity levels are analyzed, the occurrence reason of geomagnetic disturbance is combined to establish an Ap index comprehensive forecasting method; according to the method, the Ap index of the 27th day in the futurecan be forecasted day by day by inputting the recent solar activity and the Ap index time sequence in the form of a calculation formula, and the Ap index of the 4th day to the 27th day in the futurecan be forecasted as the forecasting of the Ap index of the 1st day to the 3rd day in the future belongs to the business category of short-term forecasting.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of medium-term prediction of geomagnetic Ap index, in particular to a method for mid-term prediction of geomagnetic Ap index. Background technique [0002] The geomagnetic Ap is the index of the global diurnal geomagnetic disturbance intensity, which is called the planetary equivalent daily amplitude. It describes the disturbance amplitude of the geomagnetic field in a natural day (universal time). It is the local geomagnetic disturbance amplitude measured by some typical high-level geomagnetic stations. nT). [0003] The disturbance of the geomagnetic field can have a series of direct and indirect effects on technical systems and human life. For example, the long-distance power transmission system will be disturbed by the induced current generated by the drastic change of the geomagnetic field, and the heating of the upper atmosphere caused by the geomagnetic disturbance can increase Satellite resistance,...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/18
CPCG06F17/18
Inventor 薛炳森周颜
Owner NAT SATELLITE METEOROLOGICAL CENT
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