The invention discloses a
flood forecast evaluation method adapted to reservoir dispatching characteristics, which comprises the following steps: respectively driving the same hydrological model by using historical observation rainfall and forecast rainfall, quantifying the error contribution of the hydrological model and rainfall forecast through double-track difference, and constructing a sample evaluation weight in combination with a rainfall
score; constructing
a weighting condition error
distribution model based on the weight, and generating a reservoir flow forecasting scene set containing physical cause characteristics; and inputting the scene set into a reservoir scheduling model containing
flood control and benefit-making rules, and outputting a comprehensive scheduling
risk index containing a downstream over-alarm risk and water abandoning loss through
water balance and downstream evolution calculation. According to the method, the
statistical weight is corrected through error attribution, the abstract forecast error is converted into specific
engineering risk and economic loss, the hidden risk working condition which is difficult to find by a traditional
statistical index is effectively identified, and a quantitative basis is provided for risk
decision making of reservoir dispatching and targeted optimization of a forecast
system.