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Computer generating method for short-term load forecasting in summer in power consumer electricity-utilization information acquisition system

A technology for short-term load forecasting and electricity consumption information, which is applied in forecasting, calculation, data processing applications, etc., and can solve problems that affect applications, complex models, and low forecasting accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2015-04-29
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Short-term load forecasting, especially summer short-term load forecasting, is currently mainly for power system dispatching and planning departments to arrange power purchase plans and formulate operation modes, and adopts the user-based load forecasting method, which mainly focuses on the research of algorithms and the application of forecasting However, due to the complexity of the established model, the calculation process has affected the actual application, and there is also the problem of low prediction accuracy

Method used

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  • Computer generating method for short-term load forecasting in summer in power consumer electricity-utilization information acquisition system
  • Computer generating method for short-term load forecasting in summer in power consumer electricity-utilization information acquisition system
  • Computer generating method for short-term load forecasting in summer in power consumer electricity-utilization information acquisition system

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Embodiment Construction

[0025] Best embodiment:

[0026] The computer generation method of summer short-term load forecasting in the power user electricity information collection system is based on temperature and historical data modeling existing in the electricity consumption information collection system, and then considering the influence factors of the recent load to the forecast load and other disturbance factors, the future Short-term data is used for forecasting, so as to achieve the purpose of effective monitoring of electricity consumption data.

[0027] Among them, the specific steps of establishing a prediction model are as follows (see figure 1 ):

[0028] 1) Provide a computer preprocessing module, which preprocesses the summer load and temperature data of the previous year. The daily load is a record point of 15 minutes or 30 minutes; the average daily load calculation is recorded as (Average load on day i), the highest temperature on day i is recorded as T i . Let T=(T 1 ,..., T n ), Afte...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a computer data processing method, in particular to a method for restoring computer data of a power consumer electricity-utilization information acquisition system. The main points of the method are that: the method comprises the steps of: (1), pre-processing a history electricity-utilization load and a temperature data, (2), building models related to summer temperature and a power load, wherein m and n are parameters and v is a residual set,(3), calculating coefficients rho related to the summer temperature and the load, (4), considering dependence of the data to be predicted corresponding to numerical values in the last week according to the summer temperature data and relevance of the summer temperature data and the load, and obtaining a final load prediction value. The invention provides a short-term prediction method for electricity-utilization load in summer with high accuracy and strong practicability.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to a computer data processing method, in particular to a computer generation method for summer short-term load forecasting in a power user electricity information collection system. Background technique [0002] In the power system, the power user electricity information collection system is an important technical platform for the implementation of orderly electricity management, and it provides important technical support for the implementation of orderly electricity management to ensure that the power limit is not opened. Power load forecasting is an important function newly developed in the power user power information collection system, which provides an important basis for the formulation and implementation of an orderly power use plan. Accurate load forecasting can reasonably formulate orderly power utilization plans, optimize power resource allocation in response to power shortages, minimize the adverse effects of power supply a...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 钟小强李建新李学永夏桃芳林华邓伯发段武焕李春生董雨孙广中
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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