Super-short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power station irradiance

A technology for ultra-short-term forecasting and photovoltaic power plants, which is applied in forecasting, instruments, data processing applications, etc., and can solve problems such as complex forecasting algorithms, high cost, and difficult implementation

Active Publication Date: 2014-02-05
SHANGHAI ELECTRICGROUP CORP
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Problems solved by technology

This method usually requires the installation of a sky imager on the photovoltaic power stat...

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  • Super-short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power station irradiance
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  • Super-short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power station irradiance

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Embodiment Construction

[0068] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with accompanying drawing.

[0069] see figure 1 , the ultra-short-term prediction method of the photovoltaic power plant irradiance of the present invention, comprises the following steps:

[0070] Step S1, extract the actual irradiance data of the place where the photovoltaic power station is located in a given period of time from the historical database, and perform anomaly inspection on the extracted actual irradiance data according to the theoretical extraterrestrial irradiance in the same time and area, and check the abnormality The irradiance data after inspection is normalized; in this embodiment, the meteorological observation station of the photovoltaic power station is used to collect the irradiance data on the spot, and the collection frequency is 30 seconds, and then the average value of the irradiance for 15 minutes is calculated. value, stored in the historical database; Step S1 specifi...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a super-short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power station irradiance. The method includes the steps that irradiance data are extracted from a history database, data of a night time quantum are removed, corresponding extraterrestrial theoretical irradiance is calculated, data abnormal detection is carried out based on the preceding operations, and the data are normalized in the difference value ratio method of an extraterrestrial irradiance theoretical value and practical irradiance; a training sample set is extracted according to input and output dimensionality of a model; a model of an irradiance time sequence is built through an ANFIS, a the rule quantity and an initial parameter of the ANFIS model are determined in a subtractive clustering method, and a fuzzy model parameter is optimized in a counter propagation algorithm and a least square method; a prediction sample is input, and a prediction value is obtained through calculation; the prediction value is added to form a new sample set, and multiple steps of prediction are achieved in a cycling mode; counter normalization processing is carried out on the prediction value. Super-short-term prediction of the irradiance can be achieved only by means of a history irradiance time sequence, prediction accuracy is good and the method is easy to carry out.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an ultra-short-term prediction method for the irradiance of a photovoltaic power station. Background technique [0002] Large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected power generation is an effective way to utilize solar energy, but solar energy is an intermittent and fluctuating energy source, and large-scale access will pose severe challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power system and ensure power quality. If a relatively accurate prediction can be made on the power generation of photovoltaic power plants, it will help the grid dispatching department to formulate a reasonable operation mode in a timely manner and accurately adjust the dispatching plan, which can effectively reduce the impact of photovoltaic power plants on the entire power grid, thereby ensuring The safety and stability of the power system. [0003] There are many meteorological factors affecting the power generation power of photovoltaic power plants...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 李卫席林佘慎思曾旭杨文斌
Owner SHANGHAI ELECTRICGROUP CORP
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