A method for ultra-short-term prediction of irradiance in photovoltaic power plants

Abstract

The invention discloses a super-short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power station irradiance. The method includes the steps that irradiance data are extracted from a history database, data of a night time quantum are removed, corresponding extraterrestrial theoretical irradiance is calculated, data abnormal detection is carried out based on the preceding operations, and the data are normalized in the difference value ratio method of an extraterrestrial irradiance theoretical value and practical irradiance; a training sample set is extracted according to input and output dimensionality of a model; a model of an irradiance time sequence is built through an ANFIS, a the rule quantity and an initial parameter of the ANFIS model are determined in a subtractive clustering method, and a fuzzy model parameter is optimized in a counter propagation algorithm and a least square method; a prediction sample is input, and a prediction value is obtained through calculation; the prediction value is added to form a new sample set, and multiple steps of prediction are achieved in a cycling mode; counter normalization processing is carried out on the prediction value. Super-short-term prediction of the irradiance can be achieved only by means of a history irradiance time sequence, prediction accuracy is good and the method is easy to carry out.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an ultra-short-term prediction method for the irradiance of a photovoltaic power station. Background technique [0002] Large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected power generation is an effective way to utilize solar energy, but solar energy is an intermittent and fluctuating energy source, and large-scale access will pose severe challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power system and ensure power quality. If a relatively accurate prediction can be made on the power generation of photovoltaic power plants, it will help the grid dispatching department to formulate a reasonable operation mode in a timely manner and accurately adjust the dispatching plan, which can effectively reduce the impact of photovoltaic power plants on the entire power grid, thereby ensuring The safety and stability of the power system. [0003] There are many meteorological factors affecting the power generation power of photovoltaic power plants...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This method usually requires the installation of a sky imager on the photovoltaic power station site, which is expensive and has complex prediction algorithms, so it is difficult to implement

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