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Method for extracting typhoon objective forecast information from numerical forecasting product

A technology for numerical forecasting and typhoon, which is applied in weather condition forecasting, measuring devices, meteorology, etc. It can solve problems such as difficulty in achieving positioning effect, inability to draw typhoon path and intensity forecast maps, and inability to display typhoon forecast information, etc. The effect of positioning accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2014-07-30
宁波市气象台
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, the common method to extract objective forecast information from numerical forecast products is the bilinear interpolation method. However, for typhoon objective forecast information, since there are often multiple forecast centers during bilinear interpolation, if the typhoon individuality is not attribute matching, it is difficult to achieve the best positioning effect
In the actual weather forecasting business, under normal circumstances, forecasters can easily obtain and understand the forecast of the typhoon from numerical forecast products through the display and analysis tools commonly owned by meteorological departments and subjective judgments. This subjective experience positioning and forecasting Often have strong subjectivity and a certain degree of arbitrariness, cannot provide accurate forecast information, and cannot display typhoon forecast information more intuitively, for example, cannot draw typhoon path and intensity forecast maps, and cannot use the forecast information to In-depth utilization such as ensemble / integrated forecasting, especially at present my country’s operational typhoon forecasting methods have shifted to numerical models, integrated forecasts, and statistical interpretation of numerical forecast products. Therefore, how to objectively and automatically extract It is worth studying the objective wind forecast information

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  • Method for extracting typhoon objective forecast information from numerical forecasting product

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Embodiment Construction

[0032] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0033] A method for extracting objective typhoon forecast information from numerical forecast products proposed by the present invention, its overall realization block diagram is as follows figure 1 shown, which includes the following steps:

[0034] ① Determine a typhoon origin field and several corresponding typhoon forecast fields in the numerical forecast product, and use the location of the typhoon center announced by the Central Meteorological Observatory at the same time as the typhoon origin field as the typhoon center location of the typhoon origin field Location.

[0035] In the numerical forecast product, various meteorological elements at a certain moment are used as the initial field, and the forecast time limit at that moment is 0 hours. Based on this moment, according to the atmospheric motion equation, the atmospheric conditio...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for extracting typhoon objective forecast information from a numerical forecasting product. The method includes the steps of firstly, determining a forecasting position of a typhoon center of a typhoon forecast field; secondly, determining the air pressure forecasting position of the typhoon center of the typhoon forecast field according to a sea level pressure field, determining a vortex forecasting position of the typhoon center of the typhoon forecast field according to a 850 hPa vortex field, and determining the forecasting position of the typhoon center of the typhoon forecast field according to the vortex forecasting position of the typhoon center of the typhoon forecast field by comprehensively considering the 850 hPa vortex field, a 850 hPa wind field and the sea level pressure field of the typhoon forecast field; thirdly, extracting typhoon strength forecast information according to the forecasting position of the typhoon center of the typhoon forecast field. The method has the advantages that the forecasting position of the typhoon center can be automatically extracted, accuracy is high, and the typhoon strength forecast information can be more accurately extracted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a weather forecast information processing technology, in particular to a method for extracting objective typhoon forecast information from numerical forecast products. Background technique [0002] Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) refers to solving the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics describing the weather evolution process through numerical calculations by large-scale computers under certain initial and boundary value conditions based on the actual conditions of the atmosphere, and predicting a certain amount of weather in the future. The method of atmospheric motion state and weather phenomenon in time period. Numerical weather prediction is different from weather forecasts generally made with synoptic methods and combined with experience. It is a quantitative and objective forecast. The development of numerical weather prediction has provided technical support for modern weather forecasting, and numerical ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10
Inventor 涂小萍姚日升曹艳艳丁烨毅王武军邬方平
Owner 宁波市气象台
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