A method of extracting objective typhoon forecast information from numerical forecast products

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for extracting typhoon objective forecast information from a numerical forecasting product. The method includes the steps of firstly, determining a forecasting position of a typhoon center of a typhoon forecast field; secondly, determining the air pressure forecasting position of the typhoon center of the typhoon forecast field according to a sea level pressure field, determining a vortex forecasting position of the typhoon center of the typhoon forecast field according to a 850 hPa vortex field, and determining the forecasting position of the typhoon center of the typhoon forecast field according to the vortex forecasting position of the typhoon center of the typhoon forecast field by comprehensively considering the 850 hPa vortex field, a 850 hPa wind field and the sea level pressure field of the typhoon forecast field; thirdly, extracting typhoon strength forecast information according to the forecasting position of the typhoon center of the typhoon forecast field. The method has the advantages that the forecasting position of the typhoon center can be automatically extracted, accuracy is high, and the typhoon strength forecast information can be more accurately extracted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a weather forecast information processing technology, in particular to a method for extracting objective typhoon forecast information from numerical forecast products. Background technique [0002] Numerical Weather Prediction (Numerical Weather Prediction) refers to solving the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics describing the weather evolution process through numerical calculations by large-scale computers under certain initial and boundary value conditions based on the actual conditions of the atmosphere, and predicting the weather for a certain period of time in the future. Methods of atmospheric motion states and weather phenomena. Numerical weather prediction is different from weather forecasts generally made with synoptic methods and combined with experience. It is a quantitative and objective forecast. The development of numerical weather prediction has provided technical support for modern weather forecast...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, the common method to extract objective forecast information from numerical forecast products is the bilinear interpolation method. However, for typhoon objective forecast information, since there are often multiple forecast centers during bilinear interpolation, if the typhoon individuality is not attribute matching, it is difficult to achieve the best positioning effect

In the actual weather forecasting business, under normal circumstances, forecasters can easily obtain and understand the forecast of the typhoon from numerical forecast products through the display and analysis tools commonly owned by meteorological departments and subjective judgments. This subjective experience positioning and forecasting Often have strong subjectivity and a certain degree of arbitrariness, cannot provide accurate forecast information, and cannot display typhoon forecast information more intuitively, for example, cannot draw typhoon path and intensity forecast maps, and cannot use the forecast information to In-depth utilization such as ensemble / integrated forecasting, especially at present my country’s operational typhoon forecasting methods have shifted to numerical models, integrated forecasts, and statistical interpretation of numerical forecast products. Therefore, how to objectively and automatically extract It is worth studying the objective wind forecast information

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