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Micro-grid short-term load forecasting method based on EMD-KELM-EKF

A technology for short-term load forecasting and forecasting methods, applied in forecasting, instruments, computing models, etc., and can solve problems of limited and high computational complexity

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-08-27
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

The current research results on short-term load forecasting of microgrids are relatively limited, and the computational complexity is high

Method used

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  • Micro-grid short-term load forecasting method based on EMD-KELM-EKF

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Embodiment

[0095] Using the method of the present invention for microgrids A, B, C and D, the average percentage error of the combined prediction model is obtained, as shown in Table 1.

[0096] Table 1 Combined forecasting model average percentage error (%)

[0097] Microgrid

the first week

the second week

The third week

the fourth week

A

8.363

9.003

10.376

7.866

B

10.672

8.369

8.010

7.201

C

13.522

13.788

9.917

7.836

[0098] D

6.630

6.888

5.531

6.224

[0099] The accuracy of large power grid load forecasting is within 5%, and generally can reach 2%, or even 1%. This is because the smoothing effect between the load data is good, and the commonality of users can be concentrated when the sample reaches a certain level. Due to the large difference in load data of microgrids, individuals have a great influence on the overall load curve. Usually, the load p...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a micro-grid short-term load forecasting method based on the EMD-KELM-EKF, and belongs to the technical field of intelligent power grids. The method includes the steps of firstly, preprocessing micro-grid history load data, enabling the preprocessed micro-grid history load data to serve as a training sample, and extracting the load attribute of the training sample; secondly, determining a combined forecasting model based on the EMD-KELM-EKF and parameter initial values of the combined forecasting model; thirdly, optimally selecting parameters of the combined forecasting model through a particle swarm optimization algorithm; fourthly, substituting a test sample into the combined forecasting model based on the EMD-KELM-EKF with determined parameters to obtain a forecasting result. The method is clear in physical concept and thought, and provides the theoretical foundation for micro-grid short-term load forecasting, and calculation is easy and convenient; according to the method, by means of the implementation pattern of combining offline parameter optimization with online forecasting, the forecasting result is good in stability, and optimal dispatching can be easily conducted on micro-grids.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of smart grid control, in particular to an EMD-KELM-EKF-based microgrid short-term load forecasting method. Background of the invention [0002] With the development of my country's urbanization, users' demand for electricity will further increase, and at the same time, it also provides an external environment that can be implemented for the large-scale access of renewable distributed power. The user-side micro-grid with residential quarters, commercial buildings, and industrial factories as the main body will become an effective way to promote the local consumption and utilization of renewable energy and give full play to the efficiency of distributed power. Short-term load forecasting is an important part of the user-side microgrid energy management system and the basis for optimal dispatching of micro-sources. The forecast results will directly affect the microgrid operation strategy and power trading. R...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/00
Inventor 汤庆峰刘念张建华
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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