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Stochastic simulation method for geologic risk evaluation

A technology of stochastic simulation and risk assessment, applied in the field of stochastic simulation of geological risk assessment, can solve problems such as the inability to provide assessment results, and achieve the effect of wide application prospects

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-08-26
CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEM CORP +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0016] The geological risk assessment results obtained by the risk probability method, the uncertainty analysis relative to the confidence conversion, and the use of fuzzy logic related mathematical models have the characteristics of "point estimation", and cannot provide evaluation results that conform to a certain probability distribution.

Method used

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  • Stochastic simulation method for geologic risk evaluation
  • Stochastic simulation method for geologic risk evaluation
  • Stochastic simulation method for geologic risk evaluation

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Embodiment Construction

[0053] Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is described in further detail:

[0054] Such as figure 1 As shown, this method includes:

[0055] (1) Fuzzy evaluation

[0056] The geological evaluation of a certain evaluation parameter is obtained by fuzzy logic calculation. By interpreting the series of geological evaluation rules of different geological evaluation parameters, the geological evaluation result is not a certain value (such as diagram 2-1 , Figure 2-3 shown), but a joint polygon with different distribution characteristics formed by the union of different member functions (such as Figure 2-2 , Figure 2-4 As shown in the shaded part in ), a certain evaluation parameter is generated by fuzzy scoring to quantify the distribution trend of the evaluation results, forming a rough uncertainty description. The corresponding quantitative scoring results include minimum, maximum and average values, as shown in Table 1.

[0057]

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Abstract

The invention provides a stochastic simulation method for geologic risk evaluation, which belongs to the field of uncertainty evaluation of oil and gas resources. The stochastic simulation method comprises the steps of: (1) determining evaluation parameters; (2) fuzzifying the evaluation parameters and establishing a fuzzy rule; (3) carrying out fuzzy logic calculation on each evaluation parameter to obtain geologic evaluation result of each evaluation parameter; (4) quantifying score results, namely, acquiring final quantified results of geologic risk evaluation from the geologic evaluation results obtained in step (3) through a defuzzification manner; (5) selecting a random data generator; (6) selecting a probability distribution model; (7) and acquiring Monte Carlo simulation results. The simulation results obtained by utilizing the stochastic simulation method for geologic risk evaluation can well reflect the uncertainty in geologic evaluation, thereby greatly improving the decision-making capacity of the geological risk probability method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of uncertainty evaluation of oil and gas resources, in particular to a random simulation method for geological risk evaluation. Background technique [0002] Uncertainty analysis refers to the research and estimation of the changes and influences of various external factors that cannot be controlled beforehand. It is a method commonly used in decision analysis. Through this analysis, the impact of uncertain factors on economic benefits can be ascertained and reduced as much as possible, and the impact resistance of project investment to some unforeseen risks can be evaluated, so as to prove the reliability and stability of project investment and avoid investment losses. The relatively reliable and objective evaluation results made by uncertainty analysis will have very important reference value for decision makers and future operators. [0003] Several existing methods are as follows: [0004] (1) Geological risk p...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/02
Inventor 金之钧盛秀杰王义刚
Owner CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEM CORP
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