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Similar day selection method used for photovoltaic power station power prediction

A technology for power forecasting and photovoltaic power plants, which is applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., and can solve problems such as difficulty in guaranteeing similar daily quality.

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-04-06
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, the selection of similar days is generally based on experience or the calculation results of "Euclidean distance". What is meant is equal weight treatment, but in fact each factor has different influences on photovoltaic output, so different weights must be given according to specific circumstances

Method used

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  • Similar day selection method used for photovoltaic power station power prediction
  • Similar day selection method used for photovoltaic power station power prediction
  • Similar day selection method used for photovoltaic power station power prediction

Examples

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Embodiment

[0067] The following takes a photovoltaic power station in a certain area as an example to illustrate the selection method of similar days.

[0068] 1. Determine the meteorological information vector:

[0069] Obtain the average solar radiation intensity, average air pressure, average relative humidity, intraday maximum temperature, intraday minimum temperature, and daily average temperature within 12 hours of the next day from the meteorological department.

[0070] From the forecast date, several historical days of the same season and the same weather type are reversely selected from the historical database, and the average value of solar radiation intensity, average air pressure, average relative humidity, Daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily average temperature.

[0071] Regarding the same weather type, here we take the sunny day type as an example. From the forecast date, a certain number of sunny historical days in the same season are reversely...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a similar day selection method used for photovoltaic power station power prediction. The similar day selection method comprises the following steps: determining a meteorological information vector; and normalizing and calculating a correlation coefficient, calculating a subjective weight and an objective weight, and finally obtaining the similarity on each history day by a prediction day, wherein the history data with a large similarity numerical value is the similar day. The similar day selection method provides accurate basic data for photovoltaic output forecasting on the basis of the combination of the association coefficient and the combined weight.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of photovoltaic power forecasting, in particular to a method for selecting similar days for photovoltaic power plant power forecasting. Background technique [0002] With the increasing scale of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation in China, domestic and foreign research on grid-connected photovoltaic power generation is getting more and more in-depth, but the research on photovoltaic output prediction is still not satisfactory. The output power of the photovoltaic power generation system is affected by various meteorological factors such as solar radiation intensity, radiation time, temperature, air pressure, humidity, etc., and has certain time-varying and random characteristics. How to improve the prediction accuracy still faces great difficulties. [0003] In photovoltaic power generation forecasting, the day when the forecast system will output power is usually called the forecast day, the days before thi...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 于腾凯胡文平
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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