Reliability prediction method and system for power supply of power distribution network

A prediction method and reliability technology, applied in the field of electric power, can solve problems such as poor accuracy, and achieve the effect of setting less parameters, improving prediction accuracy, and improving prediction accuracy.

Active Publication Date: 2017-07-25
ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] Based on this, it is necessary to provide a distribution network power supply relia

Method used

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  • Reliability prediction method and system for power supply of power distribution network
  • Reliability prediction method and system for power supply of power distribution network
  • Reliability prediction method and system for power supply of power distribution network

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Embodiment Construction

[0020] The technical solution of the present invention will be described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0021] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a method for predicting power supply reliability of a distribution network, which may include the following steps:

[0022] Step S1: According to the grid structure of the distribution network, the technical equipment parameters of the distribution network, the quality parameters of the distribution network equipment, the failure factors of the distribution network and the operation and maintenance parameters of the distribution network, select a variety of original index factors that affect the reliability of power supply .

[0023] The power supply reliability of the distribution network is closely related to the power grid's own supply capacity, operation and maintenance level, and external factors. In order to ensure the comprehensiveness of power supply reliability analysis, 30 fa...

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Abstract

The present invention relates to a reliability prediction method for the power supply of a power distribution network. The method comprises the following steps: selecting a variety of original index factors which influence the power supply reliability; subjecting the original index factors to standardization treatment to obtain standardized index factors; calculating a correlation coefficient between each standardized index factor and a preset reliability evaluation index, and screening out a core index factor which obviously influences the power supply reliability from all index factors according to the correlation coefficient; according to the core index factor, constructing a radial primary function neural network; obtaining the optimal center vector, the optimal base width vector and the optimal output weight of the hidden layer of the radial primary function neural network; according to the optimal center vector, the optimal base width vector and the optimal output weight, obtaining a power supply reliability prediction model; and predicting the power supply reliability of the power distribution network according to the power supply reliability prediction model.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of electric power technology, in particular to a method and system for predicting power supply reliability of a distribution network. Background technique [0002] The safety and reliability of distribution network power supply is closely related to national production and life. To a certain extent, the reliability of distribution network power supply reflects the comprehensive ability of power supply enterprises in the construction, transformation, operation and maintenance of power grids. Further improving the power supply reliability of the distribution network can not only meet the electricity demand of power users to the greatest extent, but also help to promote the further improvement and development of the power grid construction. [0003] The traditional power supply reliability of distribution network focuses on the management of distribution network. In recent years, passive management has gradually transfor...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 简淦杨于力田兵占恺峤谭勤学雷金勇郭晓斌郑炜楠李昊飞余涛
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD
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