A Prediction Method of Ship Collision Accident Rate
A collision accident and prediction method technology, applied in the field of traffic management, can solve the problems that the ship collision probability calculation model is not applicable, cannot reflect the influence of the traffic flow width on the ship collision probability, and the traffic flow width is large
Active Publication Date: 2022-04-26
DALIAN MARITIME UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology
[0003] (1) The time distribution of ships in each traffic flow in a certain water area has both randomness and regularity. In the case of no traffic control, the time of appearance of ships in the same traffic flow is mostly Random distribution. In the case of traffic control, the time of appearance of ships in the same traffic flow is mostly distributed regularly. The existing models cannot reflect the difference between randomness and regularity when calculating the collision probability of ships;
[0004] (2) In the existing model, no matter which calculation model is used, it can only calculate the ship collision probability between two traffic flows. For port waters with multiple traffic flows or complex ship traffic flows, the existing ship collision probability The calculation model is not applicable, that is, the collision probability of ships in complex traffic flow waters cannot be calculated;
[0005] (3) The traffic flow on water generally has a certain width. Affected by factors such as the width of the water area, the distribution of obstructions and the density of ships, the width of the traffic flow is not nearly the same. The width of the traffic flow in the waterway is mostly small (less than the width of the waterway ), the width of traffic flow outside the channel is relatively large (ranging from one nautical mile to three or four nautical miles), and the existing models cannot reflect the influence of traffic flow width on the collision probability of ships when calculating the collision probability between ships
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[0034] Assuming that there are n traffic flows in a certain waterway (n is the number of traffic flows in the water area, for example, the number of ship traffic flows in the water area of a certain waterway is 3, then n=3, respectively marked as traffic flow A, traffic flow B, traffic flow C. see figure 2 ).
[0035] Step 1: Select Beijing 54 coordinate system O-xy, where O is the coordinate origin, Ox is due east, Oy is due north,
[0036] The second step, data statistics before calculation: statistics can be obtained in the following three ways:
[0037] 1. Statistics from the Northern Maritime AIS Center;
[0038] 2. Statistical data from Shipping Information Network;
[0039] 3. Statistical data of self-built AIS base stations,
[0040] The following takes the statistical data of the Northern Maritime AIS Center as an example. The collected data includes the characteristic data of each traffic flow, including (1) the total number of ships in each traffic flow in th...
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The invention discloses a method for predicting the collision accident rate of ships, comprising the following steps: collecting waterway information and real-time dynamic information of each ship on each traffic flow in the waterway, establishing an origin in the waterway to establish a coordinate system, and initializing each traffic flow ; Based on the traffic characteristics of the waterway and the collected information, calculate the appearance interval of ships in the traffic flow and the slope of the relative speed of movement between the ships in turn; Distance; carry out simulation, obtain the minimum meeting distance between all ships in the channel and compare it with the preset safe minimum meeting distance, and conduct a probability analysis on the collision accident rate of ships in the channel according to the comparison results. Based on the random theory, the invention makes the prediction result closer to the reality, effectively avoids the occurrence of collision events, and improves the navigation safety.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of traffic management, in particular to a method for predicting ship collision accident rate. Background technique [0002] The problem of the collision probability of ships at sea is an important issue in ports and marine engineering. It is an important basis for port construction decision makers to formulate port construction scale and overall port planning. The ship collision probability under the existing technology mainly depends on empirical formulas and ship collision probability. Model to calculate, such as Fujii model, Pedersen model, IWRAP model, among which the IWRAP model is the most perfect and should be the most extensive, but these models are calculated by using the statistical data of ship traffic flow and fitting to a fixed formula (model) The probability of ship collision between two traffic flows in a period of time has the following deficiencies: [0003] (1) The time distribution of shi...
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IPC IPC(8): G08G3/02
CPCG08G3/02
Inventor李强
OwnerDALIAN MARITIME UNIVERSITY