The application discloses a soybean
bollworm prediction and forecasting method based on
machine learning, relates to the technical field of pest situation prediction, and comprises the following steps: collecting
trapping count and state information, summarizing the total amount of
trapping on the current day, and adopting S-shaped attenuation punishment to calculate an observation reliability index; aligning the phase of the total amount of
trapping historical data in a year to determine a key occurrence window, and calculating a phenology continuity index of a future prediction window based on the
sowing date and daily
air temperature; establishing a mechanism constraint
machine learning model based on a feedforward fully connected neural network, and outputting continuous time trapping intensity prediction values and change trend information; integrating the prediction values to obtain future pest situation accumulations, combining environmental suitability and phenological suitability to calculate pest situation risk quantities; generating maintenance instructions according to the observation reliability index, and outputting early warning and patrol frequency adjustment instructions according to the pest situation risk quantities. The application realizes quantitative suppression of low-quality trapping data, mechanism constraint stabilization of trapping intensity prediction, and comparable and reviewable risk early warning.