A Method of Power Load Forecasting

A forecasting method and power load technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as inaccurate analysis of power load characteristics

Active Publication Date: 2016-09-07
ZIGONG POWER SUPPLY COMPANY STATE GRID SICHUAN ELECTRIC POWER
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the inaccurate analysis of power load characteristics existing in the prior art due to ignoring the linkage relationship between influencing factors, and to provide a power load forecasting method that comprehensively considers various influences The linkage between factors improves the accuracy of power load forecasting

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  • A Method of Power Load Forecasting
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  • A Method of Power Load Forecasting

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Embodiment approach

[0049] Specifically, for the first implementation mode, the model matching method is used to obtain the quantitative relational expression between the annual load characteristic index and a single influencing factor. Use the single mapping formula y=y(x) to represent a certain influencing factor x (x is one of multiple influencing factors per capita GDP, home appliance reference index, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, and urbanization rate) For the relationship between the annual load characteristic index y (y is one of the annual load rate, annual peak-to-valley difference rate, average daily load rate, and annual average daily peak-to-valley difference rate), the historical data of the influencing factor x is substituted into the model library Each function model is tested separately, and the function model includes a linear function model y=ax+b, a parabolic function model y=ax 2 +bx+c, power function model y=x a +b, reciprocal function model y=a / x+...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power load forecasting method, which includes: step 1: using historical data, each annual load characteristic index and a plurality of influencing factors are used for trial calculation, and a quantitative relational expression between each annual load characteristic index and a plurality of influencing factors is established ; The historical data includes each year's load characteristic index data and each influence factor data for many years in the past; Step 2: Utilize the quantitative relational expression obtained in step 1 to predict each year's load characteristic index of the year to be predicted, and according to the predicted Each annual load characteristic index predicts the annual power generation in the year to be predicted; Step 3: distribute the predicted annual power generation to each month. The method of the invention performs annual power generation forecast and monthly power generation forecast, multiple influencing factors are considered comprehensively, and the prediction accuracy is high, which provides a reliable basis for the formulation of power consumption plan. The improved gray prediction method is used for calculation, and the efficiency is high.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power system load forecasting, in particular to a power load forecasting method. Background technique [0002] Load characteristic analysis is an important part of power load forecasting and a prerequisite for power system scheduling and planning of power resources. With the rapid development of the electricity market and the impetus of the reform mechanism, it is very urgent to improve the accuracy of load characteristic analysis, and then carry out load forecasting and formulate power consumption plan according to the load characteristic. Reasonably reducing the cost of power generation and improving the efficiency of electricity consumption has become an inevitable requirement of market reform. The load characteristic is easily affected by many factors, and its change does not show obvious regularity. The traditional load characteristic analysis method only selects the influence of one factor on the l...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 罗明才吴涛余家春张劲曾敏吴玲朱晓贤徐涛尧莲俊杨琦肖军
Owner ZIGONG POWER SUPPLY COMPANY STATE GRID SICHUAN ELECTRIC POWER
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