A Method of Power Load Forecasting

Abstract

The invention discloses a power load forecasting method, which includes: step 1: using historical data, each annual load characteristic index and a plurality of influencing factors are used for trial calculation, and a quantitative relational expression between each annual load characteristic index and a plurality of influencing factors is established ; The historical data includes each year's load characteristic index data and each influence factor data for many years in the past; Step 2: Utilize the quantitative relational expression obtained in step 1 to predict each year's load characteristic index of the year to be predicted, and according to the predicted Each annual load characteristic index predicts the annual power generation in the year to be predicted; Step 3: distribute the predicted annual power generation to each month. The method of the invention performs annual power generation forecast and monthly power generation forecast, multiple influencing factors are considered comprehensively, and the prediction accuracy is high, which provides a reliable basis for the formulation of power consumption plan. The improved gray prediction method is used for calculation, and the efficiency is high.

Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power system load forecasting, in particular to a power load forecasting method. Background technique

[0002] Load characteristic analysis is an important part of power load forecasting and a prerequisite for power system scheduling and planning of power resources. With the rapid development of the electricity market and the impetus of the reform mechanism, it is very urgent to improve the accuracy of load characteristic analysis, and then carry out load forecasting and formulate power consumption plan according to the load characteristic. Reasonably reducing the cost of power generation and improving the efficiency of electricity consumption has become an inevitable requirement of market reform. The load characteristic is easily affected by many factors, and its change does not show obvious regularity. The traditional load characteristic analysis method only selects the influence of one factor on the l...

Images