A Scale Prediction Method for Regional Distributed Integrated Energy Supply System

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for scale prediction of a regional distributed type comprehensive energy-supply system. A scenario analysis method, a factor correlation analysis method and a market predicting model method are selected for conducting comprehensive prediction at different angles; prediction models are respectively established combined with the three prediction methods and prediction condition setting and prediction parameter setting are conducted on the three modules respectively; parameters and conditions are introduced into the prediction modules to obtain prediction results; the prediction results of the three methods are processed through an equal-weight allocation method, the stability and the practicability of the prediction results can be improved, and therefore a relatively-reasonable scale prediction value of the regional distributed type comprehensive energy-supply system is obtained. The method is simple in principle, diversified in prediction angle, good in prediction accuracy, capable of accurately predicting the development scale of a future distribution type comprehensive energy-supply system of each region and directing development and construction of the regional distributed type comprehensive energy-supply system, and high in practicability and popularization.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of grid energy planning, in particular to a scale prediction method for a regional distributed comprehensive energy supply system. Background technique [0002] With the leap of the economic level in recent years, the weight of electric energy in the final energy consumption is increasing day by day. The development of the electric power industry is facing two serious challenges: one is the rapid growth of electricity demand, and the large difference between peak and valley loads will cause waste of equipment capacity and threaten the safety of the power grid; the other is large energy consumption and unreasonable energy consumption. my country's per capita share of energy resources is low, and the energy structure of power consumption is dominated by coal. The development of the power industry is facing resource and environmental constraints. [0003] The distributed integrated energy supply system can not only alle...

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Problems solved by technology

At this stage, my country has not yet had a complete set of scale prediction methods for distributed integrated energy supply systems, and because the scale of regional distributed integrated energy supply systems has the characteristics of less historical data, many influencing factors, and nonlinear development trends, etc., Therefore, it is particularly important to provide a method for comprehensively predicting the scale of regional distributed integrated energy supply systems

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