Technical improvement scale prediction system and method based on power grid equipment scrap rate service age distribution

Abstract

A technical improvement scale prediction system based on power grid equipment scrap rate service age distribution comprises a data source management module, a data processing module, a data feature distribution analysis module and a technical improvement scale prediction module, and when the system operates, the data source management module obtains basic data information of power grid equipment from an external system; then, the data processing module performs multi-source data fusion matching on the basic data information of the power grid equipment, and performs statistics based on the matched data to obtain the service age distribution of the in-operation equipment scale, the service age probability distribution of the to-be-scrapped and scrapped equipment scales and the scale proportion service age distribution in all the equipment; the data feature distribution analysis module carries out data fitting on the service age probability distribution of the scales of the to-be-scrapped equipment and the scrapped equipment to obtain a scrap probability fitting function about the service age, and finally the technical improvement scale prediction module predicts the technical improvement investment scale in combination with the fitting function and asset wall analysis. The prediction result of the design is accurate, and a technical improvement planning scheme of power grid equipment can be formulated in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid investment forecasting, and in particular relates to a system and method for predicting the scale of technical transformation based on the distribution of service life of grid equipment scrapping rate. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of my country's power industry, the investment in power grid construction has increased, which has greatly increased the proportion of fixed assets of power supply companies, and the corresponding operation and maintenance projects and costs have also shown a rising trend year by year. Therefore, the centralized operation of power equipment and the expansion of the scale of technical renovation and overhaul have brought great pressure to power grid enterprises. Reasonable prediction of the scale of future technical renovation investment is of great practical significance to the safe and stable operation of the power grid. [0003] At presen...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problems of prediction limitations and inaccuracy existing in the prior art, and provide a reasonable and accurate technical transformation scale prediction system and method based on the distribution of service age distribution of grid equipment scrapping rate

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