Method for establishing wind-driven generator power output random model capable of reflecting wind speed variation characteristics

Abstract

The invention provides a method for establishing a wind-driven generator power output random model capable of reflecting wind speed variation characteristics. The method comprises the following steps of establishing a wind speed model in consideration of the wind speed variation characteristics; establishing a wind turbine generator output power model; establishing a wind power plant output power model. According to the method, the wind-driven generator power output random model is established based on a sequential hour determinacy model, a semi-invariant method and a Cornish-Fisher stage number, and can reflect the regularity of power output of a wind-driven generator along with seasonal variations and day and night alternation as well as the fluctuations and the indeterminacy of the power output of the wind-driven generator under the influence of factors such as weather, so that the power output of the wind-driven generator is more consistent with an actual condition.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a modeling method, in particular to a random model modeling method of wind power generation output reflecting wind speed variation characteristics. Background technique [0002] In the past 20 to 30 years, the intermittent renewable energy power generation technology represented by wind power has continued to develop rapidly, and the installed capacity has increased year by year. The output of intermittent power supply has obvious fluctuations and uncertainties. After large-scale grid connection, it brings more uncertain factors to the power system. and economics have an important impact. The output model of intermittent power supply is an important basis for research on related issues, so it is urgent to conduct in-depth research on the output model of intermittent power supply. [0003] The output of wind power mainly depends on factors such as wind speed, output power characteristics of wind turbines, topography and layout...

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Problems solved by technology

[0030] In order to overcome the deficiency that the wind power generation output model in the prior art cannot fully reflect the characteristics of resource changes and cause the simulation results to deviate from the actual situation, the present invention provides a random model modeling method for wind power generation output that reflects the characteristics of wind speed changes. Based on the semi-invariant method and the Cornish-Fisher series, a stochastic model of wind power output is established, which can not only reflect the regularity of wind power output with seasonal changes and the alternation of day and night, but also reflect the wind power output due to weather, etc. Factors affect the volatility and uncertainty shown, making wind power output more in line with the actual situation

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