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A real-time prediction method for high-level road traffic flow operation risk

A road traffic and operation risk technology, applied in the direction of road vehicle traffic control system, traffic control system, instruments, etc., can solve the problem that the model cannot function, and achieve the goal of reducing traffic accidents, improving driving safety, and high prediction accuracy. Effect

Active Publication Date: 2016-10-26
TONGJI UNIV
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, most of the existing real-time traffic accident prediction models can only be modeled using traffic flow (including flow, speed, occupancy, etc.) data collected by fixed-point traffic flow detection equipment. Such models do not work when the road is high-grade

Method used

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  • A real-time prediction method for high-level road traffic flow operation risk
  • A real-time prediction method for high-level road traffic flow operation risk
  • A real-time prediction method for high-level road traffic flow operation risk

Examples

Experimental program
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Embodiment 1

[0031] Utilize the real traffic accident information and traffic data on Shanghai Expressway, test the performance of the present invention aspect traffic accident prediction, comprise following detailed steps:

[0032] (1) Obtain the traffic accident information of the road section and the speed data before the accident:

[0033] A total of 411 traffic accidents in 4 road sections on the Yan'an Elevated Road were obtained through the Shanghai expressway video surveillance system; since coil detection equipment was installed on the Yan'an Elevated Elevated Road, two traffic flow detectors in the upstream and downstream of each accident site were collected The average speed of all vehicles detected in the two time periods before the accident, these two time periods are respectively the t period before the accident (in this example, 5-10 minutes before the accident) and the t-1 period before the accident (the Embodiment is 10~15 minutes before the accident);

[0034] (2) Obtain t...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of traffic safety and intelligent traffic management control, in particular to a real-time estimating method for high-grade road traffic flow running risks. The real-time estimating method for the high-grade road traffic flow running risks considers the problem that a high-grade road short of fixed-point traffic flow collecting facility is incapable of acquiring the road traffic flow rate, occupancy and the like traffic parameters. The real-time estimating method for high-grade road traffic flow running risks includes that using traffic flow speed data acquired through different traffic information collecting technologies to build a real-time accident forecasting model, using a dynamic Bayesian network model to consider the speed state data of several time periods, building relationships between the traffic flow state and accident risks, and estimating the accident in real time so as to early warn or regulate a vehicle to avoid an accident. The real-time estimating method for the high-grade road traffic flow running risks has good forecasting precision for the high-grade road accident risks through speed data, and the real-time estimating method for the high-grade road traffic flow running risks has broad practical application value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of traffic safety and intelligent traffic management and control, and in particular relates to a real-time estimation method of high-level road traffic flow operation risk. Background technique [0002] High-grade roads (including expressways and urban expressways), as the main skeleton of the transportation system, bear a large amount of motorized traffic. According to statistics, the total length of Beijing's urban expressway system is about 380 km, accounting for only 8% of the total length of the urban road network, but it bears more than 50% of the city's daily motor vehicle travel volume; nearly 8% of the expressway in the central urban area of ​​Shanghai More than 30% of the car-kilometer travel. On high-grade roads with heavy traffic, traffic accidents occur frequently. According to the statistics of the traffic management department in Shanghai, there are as many as 80 accidents on the basic section of the ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08G1/052
CPCG08G1/0112G08G1/0133G08G1/052
Inventor 孙剑孙杰李峰陈长李莉
Owner TONGJI UNIV
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