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Event occurrence probability prediction method and device

A probabilistic prediction and event occurrence technology, applied in the field of data processing, can solve problems such as reducing business effectiveness, and the accuracy of prediction methods cannot meet preset standards, and achieves the effect of improving effectiveness, reliability, and accuracy.

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-05-17
ALIBABA GRP HLDG LTD
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  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, according to the actual probability of occurrence of business events recorded in historical data, analyzing the previous forecast data, it is known that the accuracy of the current forecast method cannot meet the preset standards, which reduces the effectiveness of processing related businesses based on the forecast results

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  • Event occurrence probability prediction method and device
  • Event occurrence probability prediction method and device
  • Event occurrence probability prediction method and device

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Embodiment Construction

[0019] Embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below, examples of which are shown in the drawings, wherein the same or similar reference numerals designate the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions throughout. The embodiments described below by referring to the figures are exemplary only for explaining the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the present invention. On the contrary, the embodiments of the present invention include all changes, modifications and equivalents coming within the spirit and scope of the appended claims.

[0020] In the description of the present invention, it should be understood that the terms "first", "second" and so on are used for descriptive purposes only, and cannot be interpreted as indicating or implying relative importance. In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that unless otherwise specified and limited, the terms "connected" and "connect...

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Abstract

The invention provides an event occurrence probability prediction method and device. The event occurrence probability prediction method comprises the steps of according to prediction index type requirements of each prediction in a preset model set for a predicted event, acquiring prediction indexes corresponding to the prediction index type requirements; applying each prediction model to process the corresponding prediction indexes, and acquiring an output probability corresponding to each prediction model; applying a pre-trained fitting model corresponding to the model set to process the output probability corresponding to each prediction model, and predicting the occurrence probability of the event. According to the event occurrence probability prediction method and device, the accuracy of a prediction result is improved, and thus the effectiveness and the reliability of processing relevant services according to the prediction result are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of data processing, in particular to a method and device for predicting event occurrence probability. Background technique [0002] In many business scenarios, it is often necessary to predict the occurrence probability of various events in the business, so as to adjust or operate the related business according to the predicted probability of occurrence. For example: on the third-party payment business platform, predict the occurrence probability of the user's account being stolen; or, on the financing business platform, predict the occurrence probability of the user's repayment of the loan amount; or, on the insurance business platform, predict the user's claim settlement Probability of events, etc. [0003] At present, a single prediction model is used to predict the probability of occurrence of various events in the business according to the business scenario. For example, on the insurance busine...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
Inventor 张振宇张建业施鸣骞
Owner ALIBABA GRP HLDG LTD
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