High-confidence small-sample evaluation method for reliability of explosives

A reliable, small-sample technology, applied in the direction of instruments, data processing applications, resources, etc., can solve the problems of arbitrary quantification and quantification difficulties

Active Publication Date: 2017-08-25
INST OF CHEM MATERIAL CHINA ACADEMY OF ENG PHYSICS
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  • Abstract
  • Description
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Problems solved by technology

Other new evaluation methods that are being researched and developed and may be applied in the future, such as fuzzy reliability evaluation method, QMU (quantification of margin and its uncertainty) evaluation method, although each has certain advantages,

Method used

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  • High-confidence small-sample evaluation method for reliability of explosives
  • High-confidence small-sample evaluation method for reliability of explosives
  • High-confidence small-sample evaluation method for reliability of explosives

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Experimental program
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Embodiment approach

[0068] (1) Use mathematical statistics and uncertainty theory to analyze, derive and establish reliability evaluation models

[0069] The present invention judges whether a certain performance of the product meets the specified reliability requirement according to whether the ratio of the product overall performance parameter margin estimation result to the uncertainty estimation result is greater than 1 under a certain confidence level. Therefore, the overall product performance parameter margin and its uncertainty estimation technology and method under a certain confidence level are directly related to the accuracy of the estimation results. The present invention firstly takes the normal distribution as the starting point, and reveals the logical relationship between product performance reliability and performance margin and its uncertainty estimation results through theoretical analysis and mathematical derivation; secondly, the research establishes the single-point reliability...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a high-confidence small-sample evaluation method for the reliability of explosives. According to the mensurability and reliability requirements of explosives, and under the premise that the performance parameters of explosives obey normal distribution or approximate normal distribution or the evaluated performance parameters after transformation obey normal distribution or approximate normal distribution, the parameters and uncertainty of a population distribution model are estimated based on small sample data and measurement uncertainty of product performance parameter quantitative measurement. In the absence of priori information and in the presence of statistical characteristics, the number of pieces of sample data needed by the method can be reduced to five under the condition that the confidence level is not less than 0.90 and the reliability of explosive performance evaluation is not less than 0.99 or above. The confidence level of evaluation results reaching required reliability is not lower than 97.5% of the prescribed confidence level.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to a quantifiable high-value explosive product performance reliability evaluation technology, in particular to a high-confidence small sample evaluation method for the reliability of the explosive product. Background technique [0002] In the design, development, testing and batch production of products with high reliability requirements, how to pass a small amount of reliability test to obtain the performance data required by the product and evaluate whether it meets the requirements is a hot spot in the field of reliability research today. . However, so far, the various classic small-sample evaluation methods proposed by domestic and foreign research studies either still require a large sample size data to ensure that the accuracy and credibility of the evaluation results are within the acceptable range, or although the evaluation The required sample size data has been reduced, but the accuracy and credibility of the evaluation resu...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06
CPCG06Q10/06393G06Q10/06395
Inventor 周美林
Owner INST OF CHEM MATERIAL CHINA ACADEMY OF ENG PHYSICS
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