The invention relates to a vehicle trajectory prediction method based on uncertainty estimation. The method comprises the steps of collecting the pose information and local semantic map information of surrounding vehicles in real time, and obtaining the historical pose information of the vehicles, according to the collected vehicle position information, in combination with a high-precision map, a lane connection relationship and a traffic rule, determining all candidate lanes of a future trajectory end point, evaluating the uncertainty of the historical pose of the vehicle according to the pose of the vehicle and the local semantic map, converting the historical pose of the vehicle to the coordinate system of each lane, conducting feature coding in combination with information such as lane directions, and predicting the probability of a vehicle driving end point on each candidate lane, and predicting probability distribution of a future driving route of the target vehicle according to the feature coding. Compared with the prior art, the method solves the problems that in the prior art, input vehicle historical pose uncertainty is neglected, and trajectory multi-mode modeling is incomplete, an accurate and reliable information source can be provided for downstream decision planning of automatic driving, and risks are reduced.