S-model based primary aluminum demand prediction method

Abstract

The invention relates to an S-model based primary aluminum demand prediction method. Based on the 'S'-shaped physical model of per capita primary aluminum consumption and per capita GDP (gross domestic product), the per capita GDP is used as the independent variable, the hyperbolic tangent mathematical method is used, different national or regional historical data are combined to establish the primary aluminum demand prediction equation, and accordingly accurate quantitative prediction for the long-term demand for primary aluminum in countries, regions or industries is achieved. The method includes the following steps: S1, create an 'S' curve; S2, establishing an 'S'-shaped physical model; S3, establishing an 'S' theoretical model; S4, building an 'S' mathematical model; S5, predicting the GDP value; S6, forecasting the primary aluminum demand results. The S-model based primary aluminum demand prediction method solves the problem that the predictive errors are large in primary aluminum demand prediction in the past fundamentally, and reliability and confidence coefficient in predication are heightened.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a quantitative primary aluminum demand forecasting method and a method for constructing a forecasting equation, specifically to a physical model based on an "S" shape between per capita GDP and per capita primary aluminum consumption, using a hyperbolic tangent function mathematical method to construct its forecast Equation method and primary aluminum demand forecasting method based on the forecasting equation. Background technique [0002] At present, the primary aluminum demand forecasting methods can be generally divided into two categories: qualitative forecasting and quantitative forecasting. [0003] Qualitative prediction is usually judged based on subjective experience, the most representative ones are Delphi method and analogy method. The Delphi method forms a forecast of future trends through repeated consultation of expert opinions; the analogy method extracts the primary aluminum consumption indicators at t...

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Problems solved by technology

However, this method is not suitable for primary aluminum demand forecasting, and it is difficult to achieve the expected accuracy

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