S-shaped model-based industrial department terminal energy demand prediction method

Abstract

The invention relates to an S-shaped model-based industrial department terminal energy demand prediction method. According to the method, an industrial department terminal energy demand prediction equation is established by taking an S-shaped theoretical model of per-capita industrial department terminal energy consumption and per-capita GDP as basis and taking the per-capita GDP as an independent variable through a trend analysis method, a hyperbolic tangent function mathematic method and history data of different countries or regions, so that the prediction for medium-term and long-term industrial department terminal energy demands of the countries / regions is realized. The method mainly comprises the following steps of: S1, constructing an S-shaped relation curve; S2, constructing an S-shaped physical model; S3, constructing the S-shaped theoretical model; S4, constructing an S-shaped curve mathematic model; and S5, carrying out prediction. The S-shaped model-based industrial department terminal energy demand prediction method provided by the invention is guided by a per-capita industrial department terminal energy consumption basic law, so that the problem that the past industrial department terminal energy demand prediction is generally large in prediction deviation is fundamentally solved, and the prediction reliability and confidence are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a quantitative forecasting method of terminal energy demand in industrial sectors, specifically an "S"-shaped theoretical model based on the relationship between per capita GDP and per capita industrial sector terminal energy consumption, constructed using trend analysis and hyperbolic tangent function mathematical methods The method of its forecasting equation and the method of forecasting the final energy demand of the industrial sector based on the forecasting equation. Background technique [0002] Different from the primary energy consumption, the sectoral terminal energy consumption is the sectoral terminal energy consumption after the sector’s primary energy consumption minus the losses in energy processing, transformation, and storage and transportation. Efficiency of intermediate links) and terminal utilization efficiency. The industrial sector is one of the three main sectors in the final energy consumption, ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The core defect of traditional sectoral energy forecasting methods is the lack of grasp of the long-scale quantitative relationship between sectoral terminal energy consumption and economic development. Only past data are used to simulate, deduce or analogize the future, and the predictions lack scientificity and accuracy, resulting in large deviations in results.

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