Agricultural product price fluctuation early warning method and system

A technology of early warning system and agricultural products, applied in the fields of instruments, business, data processing and other fields, can solve the problems of subjectivity of analysis results, limited experience of experts, etc., to achieve universal applicability and pertinence, and improve the effect of objectivity

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-10-20
AGRI INFORMATION INST OF CAS
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  • Abstract
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

However, the method of expert judgment is often limited by the experience of experts, and the analysis results are relatively subjective.

Method used

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  • Agricultural product price fluctuation early warning method and system
  • Agricultural product price fluctuation early warning method and system
  • Agricultural product price fluctuation early warning method and system

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Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0033] figure 1 It is a method flow chart of Embodiment 1 of the method for early warning of price fluctuations of agricultural products in the present invention.

[0034] see figure 1 , the early warning method for price fluctuations of agricultural products, including:

[0035] Step 101: Sampling the historical price fluctuations of agricultural products of the type to be tested in the area to be tested to obtain sample data;

[0036] Step 102: Analyze the sample data using the kernel density estimation method to obtain the probability density function of the price fluctuation of agricultural products; the probability density function is a function reflecting the possible probability of the price fluctuation value of the agricultural product; this step is specifically include:

[0037] Using a Gaussian kernel function as the kernel function of the kernel density estimation method, analyzing the sample data to obtain a probability density function;

[0038] Select the win...

Embodiment 2

[0045] An early warning method for price fluctuations of agricultural products, comprising:

[0046] Sampling the historical price fluctuations of the agricultural products of the type to be tested in the area to be tested to obtain sample data.

[0047] Analyzing the sample data using a kernel density estimation method to obtain a probability density function of price fluctuations of agricultural products;

[0048] The probability density function is expressed as:

[0049]

[0050] in is a probability density function, n is the quantity of the sample data, and i is the sequence number of the sample data; X i is the i-th sample data, K(x) is the kernel function, x is the variable of the probability density function, and h is the window width.

[0051] Select Gaussian kernel function as kernel function in the present embodiment, then described kernel function K (x) is:

[0052]

[0053] The deviation and error of the probability density function obtained according to t...

Embodiment 3

[0077] figure 2 It is a system structure diagram of an embodiment of the agricultural product price fluctuation early warning system of the present invention.

[0078] see figure 2 , the agricultural product price fluctuation early warning system, including:

[0079] The sampling module 201 is used to sample the historical price fluctuations of the agricultural products of the type to be tested in the area to be tested to obtain sample data;

[0080] The kernel density estimation module 202 is configured to use a kernel density estimation method to analyze the sample data to obtain a probability density function of price fluctuations of agricultural products; the probability density function reflects the probability of possible occurrence of the price fluctuation value of the agricultural products function;

[0081] The warning degree fluctuation value acquisition module 203 is used to obtain the price fluctuation value within the preset price fluctuation range correspond...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an early warning method and system for price fluctuations of agricultural products. The method includes: sampling the historical price fluctuations of agricultural products of the type to be tested in the area to be tested to obtain sample data; analyzing the sample data by using the kernel density estimation method to obtain the probability density function of price fluctuations of agricultural products; obtaining each alarm from the sample data. The price fluctuation value within the preset price fluctuation range corresponding to the warning degree; the least squares operation is performed on the price fluctuation value to obtain the price fluctuation quantile probability corresponding to each warning degree; according to the probability density function and the price fluctuation quantile probability, different warnings are determined. The range of price fluctuations; compare the price fluctuation value of agricultural products of the type to be tested in the area to be tested with the price fluctuation range, and when the price fluctuation value of agricultural products is within the price fluctuation range, an early warning corresponding to the degree of warning will be issued. The method and system disclosed in the invention can accurately warn the price fluctuation of agricultural products, and improve the objectivity of analyzing the price fluctuation of agricultural products.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of price monitoring of agricultural products, in particular to a method and system for early warning of price fluctuations of agricultural products. Background technique [0002] Agricultural products are an industrial form that combines natural reproduction and social reproduction, and play a vital role in the development of agriculture and rural economy. Therefore, analyzing the price fluctuations of agricultural products is of great significance for the government to carry out macro-control and farmers to designate production strategies. [0003] The price of agricultural products is affected by the spatial distribution of production, the time distribution of product consumption, and the lag of market signals and policy effects. This makes the price fluctuation of agricultural products a relatively complicated process of change. At present, most of the means of analyzing the price fluctuation of agricultu...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/02G06Q30/02
CPCG06Q30/0283G06Q50/02
Inventor 许世卫王盛威庄家煜王东杰刘佳佳
Owner AGRI INFORMATION INST OF CAS
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