Consider air -conditioning flexible control response ability prediction method of outdoor temperature prediction error

Abstract

The invention discloses an air conditioner flexible control response ability prediction method taking outdoor air temperature prediction errors into consideration. The method comprises the following steps that 1, a white noise model for error prediction of the outdoor air temperature is established; 2, the indoor temperature change process of a room where an air conditioner is located is describedthrough a random differential equation; 3, the working process of a air conditioner cluster is simulated by using a random simulation method so as to obtain a sample of the flexible control responseability of the air conditioner, wherein the sample comprises the samples of the response capacity and the response delay; and 4, a statistical method is adopted to obtain a prediction result of the flexible control response ability of the air conditioner, namely, the sample mean value, the sample standard deviation and the estimation interval of the response capacity and response time delay. According to the method, a reference basis can be provided for implementing effective demand response management on the load of the air conditioner by an air conditioner load aggregation provider.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric load demand side management, and relates to a method for predicting the responsiveness of air-conditioning flexible control in consideration of outdoor air temperature prediction errors. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the rapid development of the economy and the improvement of people's lives, the electricity load (especially the peak load) has increased sharply, and the problem of the peak-to-valley difference of the load curve has become prominent. In order to meet the rapidly growing demand for electricity, the traditional approach is to build new power plants and renovate and expand the power grid. However, due to the low utilization rate of these new power generation and transmission equipment, it will eventually lead to increased costs and waste of resources. Practical experience at home and abroad shows that the contradiction between power supply and demand cannot be effectively ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] Aiming at the defects that the traditional method does not consider the outdoor air temperature prediction error and cannot predict the response delay, the present invention provides an air conditioner flexible control response ability prediction method considering the outdoor air temperature prediction error, in order to build a model of the outdoor air temperature prediction error and analyze the air conditioner cluster The stochastic simulation of the working process can obtain more reasonable prediction results of air-conditioning flexible control response capabilities (including response capacity and response delay), thereby providing more comprehensive information for air-conditioning load aggregators, so that they can implement more scientific and efficient control of air-conditioning loads. Effective Demand Response Management

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