32results about How to "Reflect uncertainty" patented technology

The invention provides a wireless sensor network (WSN) trust evaluation method based on subjective belief, and belongs to the technical field of WSN security. The trust evaluation method comprises the following steps of: 1. implementing formal definition of trust values among nodes; 2. establishing and updating a trust evaluation sheet for an evaluation object by an evaluation subject; 3. calculating an observed value of the direct trust value during the current time period; 4. calculating the direct trust value during the current time period; 5. establishing a trust recommendation structure between the evaluation subject and the evaluation object; 6. calculating the recommendation trust value of the evaluation object by the evaluation subject; and 7. obtaining the overall trust value of the evaluation object and judging whether the evaluation object is trusted. The WSN trust evaluation method has the advantages that a universal WSN distributed trust evaluation method is established; the trust relationship among the nodes is defined; formal definition, calculation, update and transmission for node trust are realized based on the subjective belief; and subjectivity, fuzziness, uncertainty, dynamic nature and transitivity of the trust values are better reflected.

The invention discloses a method for monitoring the damage of a concrete structure based on piezoelectric intelligent aggregate. The method comprises the following steps: designing a piezoelectric intelligent aggregate sensor and a driver which are independently packaged; and establishing a damage statistical index of the concrete structure based on wavelet analysis and a method for determining the damage degree, the damage probability and the damage position, and providing a statistical recognition algorithm for the damage of the concrete structure of the piezoelectric intelligent aggregate based on wavelet analysis. According to the method disclosed by the invention, the influences of partial test errors are eliminated to a certain degree, and the uncertainty of a damage identification problem is well reflected and is converted into mathematical description in the probability statistical significance, so that the problem of uncertainty of the damage identification is effectively solved, the damage degree and damage probability of the concrete structure can be determined, and the rough position (range) of the damage can be effectively recognized.

The invention discloses a multi-stage power supply planning method for maximizing renewable energy utilization. The method includes: acquiring power supply planning data, system basic technical data,system operation constraint condition data and system operation prediction data; constructing a multi-stage power supply planning model, a power supply planning budget and construction limitation constraint, a system operation basic constraint, a thermal power plant operation constraint, a hydraulic power plant operation constraint, a renewable energy power plant operation constraint, a delivery channel operation constraint and a renewable energy power plant investment portfolio constraint by taking the maximum renewable energy utilization amount as an objective function; and inputting the obtained data into the constructed power supply planning model, performing solving to obtain a power supply planning construction scheme and a renewable energy consumption evaluation result, and carryingout multi-stage power supply planning to realize maximum utilization of renewable energy. According to the method, the defects in a traditional power supply planning method are overcome, the multi-aspect requirements of system operation can be better met, the utilization level of renewable energy sources is greatly improved, and the method has stronger guiding significance for actual constructionof multiple types of power supplies.

The invention discloses a novel voltage sag severity evaluation method, which comprises the steps: S1, extracting a voltage sag characteristic quantity according to single voltage sag characteristic quantity sample data; S2, constructing a voltage sag severity index SSI model for a voltage sag event; and S3, according to the constructed index model, evaluating the severity of the voltage sag to besimulated or detected, guiding industrial use, and further avoiding the power equipment fault risk under the voltage sag. Compared with the existing single event characteristic, the method provided by the invention better reflects the uncertainty of the response of the equipment to the voltage sag; according to the method, the change of equipment sensitivity is fully explained by changing parameter setting in an SSI formula, and an SSI equivalent contour line is determined by setting parameters in the SSI formula; according to the voltage sag severity index model constructed in the method, the sensitivity degree of the equipment to the voltage sag event is considered, and the index can fully and tightly connect the voltage sag with the industrial process.

The invention relates to a method for acquiring an evaluation result of a direct-current distribution network planning scheme, which comprises the following steps of: 1, constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the direct-current distribution network planning scheme, and establishing a calculation mathematical model of each index; 2, constructing a comprehensive interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix according to the comprehensive evaluation index system and the index calculation value of the planning scheme, and checking the consistency of the comprehensive interval intuitionistic judgment matrix; and 3, processing the constructed interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix based on a foreground theory and an MYCIN uncertainty factor to obtain a comprehensive evaluation value, and sequencing the schemes according to a comprehensive evaluation value maximization principle to obtain an evaluation result of the planning scheme. Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages that the problem of insufficient mining of uncertain information is solved, the uncertainty of subjective recognition in decision making is reduced, the identification degree of the evaluation result is improved, and the decision making result better conforms to reality and is more credible.

The invention provides a determination index based low resistivity oil zone recognition method and device. The determination index based low resistivity oil zone recognition method comprises the steps that a low resistivity oil zone of a target exploration region is defined; data information of the target exploration region is obtained to find out the confirmed low resistivity oil zone; the causes of the low resistivity oil zone are analyzed to determine a low resistivity oil zone recognition method suitable for the target exploration region, the experience judging indexes corresponding to the low resistivity oil zone recognition method are calculated, and the distribution range of the experience judging indexes is obtained; a suspended low resistivity oil zone of the target exploration region is looked up, and the target judging indexes of the suspended low resistivity oil zone are calculated; and a recognition result of the suspended low resistivity oil zone is determined according to the distribution situation of the target judging indexes in the distribution range. By utilizing the embodiments of the method, multiple oil zone recognition methods can be comprehensively considered, the uncertainty and correct judgement probability in the judging process can be embodied in a quantitative mode, the subjective influence of artificial recognition can be reduced, and the recognition correction rate can be improved.

The invention discloses an air conditioner flexible control response ability prediction method taking outdoor air temperature prediction errors into consideration. The method comprises the following steps that 1, a white noise model for error prediction of the outdoor air temperature is established; 2, the indoor temperature change process of a room where an air conditioner is located is describedthrough a random differential equation; 3, the working process of a air conditioner cluster is simulated by using a random simulation method so as to obtain a sample of the flexible control responseability of the air conditioner, wherein the sample comprises the samples of the response capacity and the response delay; and 4, a statistical method is adopted to obtain a prediction result of the flexible control response ability of the air conditioner, namely, the sample mean value, the sample standard deviation and the estimation interval of the response capacity and response time delay. According to the method, a reference basis can be provided for implementing effective demand response management on the load of the air conditioner by an air conditioner load aggregation provider.

The invention discloses a reservoir scheduling risk group decision-making method under an incomplete information condition. The method comprises the steps of building a reservoir scheduling multi-objective optimization scheduling model, and obtaining a non-inferior scheme set; quantizing the uncertainty of all scheme index values, and establishing a random decision matrix; deducing a feasible weight space under the incomplete information condition; building a risk group decision-making model based on a random non-inferior and inferior solution distance; and quantitatively evaluating the uncertainty of a risk group decision-making result. According to the method, preference information of all decision makers can be effectively fused, so that information loss is avoided; the influence of double uncertainty of the index values and index weights is considered at the same time, and the uncertainty of the group decision-making result is quantitatively evaluated, so that the decision-making mistake risk is lowered; important risk information can be provided for the decision makers in a random environment, so that the reliability of reservoir scheduling risk group decision-making is improved; and the method has higher calculation efficiency, robustness and universality.

The invention discloses a comprehensive energy system wind power consumption method considering dynamic characteristics of a heat supply network. The method comprises the steps that a mathematical model of a comprehensive energy system is constructed; historical data of the wind turbine generator is collected, and representative scenes are calculated and screened out; an optimal scheduling model of the comprehensive energy system is constructed, a mathematical model of the comprehensive energy system is used as a constraint, a scene model is used, a Monte Carlo method is used for solving, and a wind power consumption scheme of the comprehensive energy system is obtained. According to the method, dynamic modeling is carried out on the regional heat supply network, the dynamic characteristics of thermal delay and thermal storage are fully mined, the wind power consumption space is improved, the Monte Carlo method is used in the scheduling process to reflect the power generation capacity of the wind turbine generator, the uncertainty of the power generation capacity of the wind turbine generator is reflected, waste of energy is reduced, heat requirements and electricity requirements of users are kept, and economic benefits of operators are increased while safety of a power grid is guaranteed.

The present invention relates to the field of power systems and automation of the power systems, and in particular to a transformer failure rate calculation method considering the temperature. The method comprises: based on the establishment of a large database, using the data clustering principle to process and analyze big data; and processing and analyzing parameters of random and fuzzy uncertainty involved in transformer failure state evaluation by using the theory of a probability fuzzy set. According to the transformer failure rate calculation method considering the temperature proposed by the present invention, the transformer failure state can be evaluated, the uncertainty of the transformer failure state characteristic value is reflected, the theoretical guidance is provided for the transformer failure state evaluation, and the necessary technical support is provided for the maintenance and operation of the distribution network.

The invention relates to a transformer insulation oil deterioration state evaluation method. The steps are as follows: firstly, data sets of transformer insulation oil characteristic class, insulationpaper characteristic class, gas characteristic class, temperature characteristic class, capacitance characteristic class, partial discharge characteristic class and corresponding probability values are constructed; then, the average values of oil, paper, gas, temperature, capacitance and partial discharge characteristic values, which reflect the deterioration state of the transformer insulation oil, are calculated; thirdly, the evaluation function of the insulation oil deterioration state of the transformer is constructed; and finally, the deterioration state of the transformer insulation oilis evaluated. The invention can evaluate the insulation oil degradation state of the transformer, reflects the uncertainty of the characteristic value of the insulation oil degradation state of the transformer, provides the theoretical guidance for the insulation oil degradation state evaluation of the transformer, and provides the necessary technical support for the operation and maintenance ofthe distribution network.

The invention discloses a self-adaptive target tracking method based on multi-filter information fusion. The method comprises the following steps: step 1, constructing a multi-Kalman filter data fusion tracking model; 2, judging whether the adaptive Kalman filter needs to update parameters or not; 3, calculating uncertain information of a plurality of fixed parameter Kalman filters; 4, convertingthe uncertain information of the plurality of fixed parameter Kalman filters into evidences; 5, converting the fused evidences into probabilities; and step 6, updating parameters of the adaptive Kalman filter. According to the invention, the Kalman filter with self-adaptive parameter adjustment is added on the basis of a plurality of Kalman filters, so that the method has better anti-interferenceperformance; uncertain information of the innovation information is fused by using an evidence theory to generate a probability value; the parameters of the plurality of Kalman filters are used as reference values, and the parameters of the adaptive Kalman filters are updated in combination with the probability values, so that the accuracy of target tracking in an interference environment is improved.

The invention relates to the field of power systems and automation thereof, in particular to a method for calculating the failure rate of insulation oil degradation of a transformer. Aiming at the problem of how to deal with the big data of insulation oil deterioration failure state evaluation of the transformer, which involves many kinds, large quantity and complex interrelation, the method adopts the data clustering principle to process and analyze the big data on the basis of establishing a big database. For parameters of the random and fuzzy uncertainties involved in the evaluation of theinsulation oil deterioration failure state of the transformer, the theory of probabilistic fuzzy sets is used to process and analyze the parameters. The method for calculating the failure rate of insulation oil deterioration of the transformer may evaluate the insulation oil degradation failure state of the transformer, reflects the uncertainty of eigenvalues of the insulation oil degradation failure state of the transformer, provides theoretical guidance for insulation oil degradation failure state evaluation, and provides a necessary technical support for distribution network operation and maintenance.

The invention provides a high-rise building electrical fire risk two-stage assessment method based on an interval TOPSIS method, and the method comprises the steps: 1, determining an electrical fire risk factor main index and sub-indexes from the electrical fire risk assessment through combining the electrical fire features of a high-rise building, and constructing a building electrical fire risk assessment index system; step 2, calculating weight coefficients of the main index and the sub-index of the electrical fire risk factor by adopting an interval analytic hierarchy process; and step 3, according to the calculated weight coefficients of the main index and the sub-index of the electrical fire risk factor, identifying the electrical fire risk factor of the high-rise building by combining an interval TOPSIS method, quantitatively representing the importance degree of each index, and performing quantitative analysis on the constructed evaluation index system. According to the risk assessment method provided by the invention, fire risk factors can be effectively identified, electrical fire prevention measures can be timely formulated, and the timeliness and reliability of high-rise building electrical fire protection are improved.