Regional power distribution network gridding load interval prediction method based on electricity distribution and sale competition situation

Abstract

The invention discloses a regional power distribution network gridding load interval prediction method based on a power distribution and sale competition situation. The method comprises the following steps: carrying out modeling research on typical energy consumption of a power distribution network terminal user; researching a power supply and consumption classification method based on a time scale; researching the flexibility of the flexible load and a power supply and consumption interval model; carrying out modeling research on the electric vehicle charging and discharging model, researching the charging demand of the electric vehicle on each time section, and determining a charging and discharging interval of the electric vehicle; carrying out comprehensive optimization by adopting a particle swarm optimization algorithm, and determining an optimal output weight of the network model; calculating PICP and DADI power supply and consumption interval flexibility evaluation indexes; and obtaining a power supply and consumption interval value with relatively high prediction accuracy. According to the method, various factors such as distributed photovoltaic, flexible load and power supply and consumption intervals of the electric vehicle are considered, and the power supply and consumption interval value with relatively high accuracy is determined by combining social benefits and interval indexes as an optimization target under the power distribution and sale competition situation.

Description

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of distribution network interval prediction, and relates to a grid-based load interval prediction method for regional distribution networks under the competition situation of distribution and sale of electricity. Background technique [0002] At present, my country's distributed power supply is developing rapidly, and the installed capacity of distributed power supply is increasing continuously, and the proportion of distributed power supply capacity in the total installed capacity of the country is increasing day by day. Due to the strong support of the Chinese government for the development and utilization of new energy and the introduction of relevant policies, renewable energy power generation including wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation has developed rapidly in recent years. Distributed power, especially distributed renewable energy Renewable energy has achieved large-scale access and application. ...

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