Probability modeling method for initial charging moment of electric private car

Abstract

The invention discloses a probability modeling method for an initial charging moment of an electric private car. The method comprises the following specific modeling steps of 1), recording and inputting n practical electric private car initial charging moment sample data Ts within m days, wherein Ts=[Ts1, Ts2, ..., Tsn], and the value range of the Ts is (a, b); 2) calculating the probability distribution of the initial charging moment of the electric private car. According to the method, the probability distribution of the initial charging moment of the electric private car can be accurately simulated, and the accuracy is high. Any assumed conditions are not needed, so that the accuracy is high, the generality is high, and the effect of simulating the probability distribution of the initial charging moment of the electric private car is better. The problem of lacking of local adaptability due to the adoption of fixed bandwidth is solved, so that the probability distribution of the initial charging moment of the electric private car is more accurate. An initial charge state and initial charging moment probability model are accurately built by using a computer program, and the method is simple, high in practicality and convenient to popularize and apply.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a modeling method for the electrification time of an electric private car. Background technique [0002] As a new generation of transportation, electric private cars have great advantages of low energy consumption and low pollution, and will usher in rapid development in the foreseeable future. The calculation of electric private vehicle charging load is the premise of studying the impact of electric private vehicles on the power grid, charging infrastructure planning, and power grid planning and operation. The electric private car charging load model needs to be composed of electric private car initial charging time parameters, so how to establish an accurate probability distribution model of electric private car initial charging time is very important. [0003] The existing method for probabilistic modeling of the initial charging time of electric private cars is to use the traditional parameter estimation method, which pres...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The main disadvantages of this method: 1) Because the initial charging time of electric private cars is data with upper and lower bound constraints, such as the range of 0-24 hours in a day, when using a normal distribution, the range is the entire real number interval, so The obtained probability distribution will have boundary deviations at the upper and lower boundaries; 2) The selection of parameter distribution depends on subjective experience, and the theoretical basis is not sufficient. If the assumed probability distribution does not match the actual situation, it will inevitably make the established probability distribution inaccurate; 3 ) adopts a fixed bandwidth, so the bandwidth cannot be adjusted according to the sample data in the local area, so there is a problem of lack of local adaptability

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