Post evaluation method and risk management and control method of construction cost of power transmission project

Abstract

The invention provides a post evaluation method and risk management and control method of the construction cost of a power transmission project. According to the post evaluation method and risk management and control method, the construction cost of the power transmission project is decomposed into sub-item costs; the stochastic characteristics of the sub-item costs are simulated through adopting normal distribution; the VaR (Value at Risk) of the sub-item costs under a certain confidence level is determined; the ratios of the VaR to the mean values of the sub-item costs are adopted as the weights of the sub-item costs; a sub-item cost evaluation model is established; contribution degree indexes are established according to the proportions of the sub-item costs in total cost; main sub-item costs are screened out according to the sequence of the contribution degree indexes; and based on the main sub-item costs, with the interval constraints of a risk rate considered, a stochastic linear programming model is established with the controlling the main sub-item costs distributed in an allowed risk interval adopted as a target; and sampling simulation is performed on stochastic factors through adopting the Monte Carlo method, so that a stochastic linear programming problem can be solved. With the method provided by the invention adopted, the fluctuation risk of the construction cost can be effectively evaluated, and the construction cost can be controlled in a certain risk interval.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system engineering cost management, and in particular relates to a method for post-assessment and risk control of power transmission project cost. Background technique [0002] Power transmission project is an important part of power network construction, and its investment amount is generally large. There are usually many uncertain factors in the implementation process of power transmission projects, such as design changes, construction delays, equipment price changes, etc. These uncertain factors will lead to fluctuations in the cost of transmission projects, causing cost and investment risks. In this way, it is necessary to consider the influence of uncertain factors when evaluating the cost of power transmission, analyze the possible risks, and study the corresponding risk control measures. Doing so helps to reasonably predict and determine the cost of each stage of the project, and then control the ove...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The following problems exist when such methods are applied to assess the impact of each sub-item cost on the total cost: AHP method usually requires the use of expert knowledge and experience, which is quite subjective; the principal component method mainly analyzes the sub-item cost or factors. Dimensionality reduction processing, the final principal component cannot fully reflect the individual cost or the independent weight of a certain factor; large error

It is generally believed that the tail loss measurement of value at risk is insufficient, while CVaR can properly reflect the potential risk of the investment portfolio

Because the natural and market environments of power transmission projects in the same area are the same, and historical projects have accumulated certain experience for risk management, when applying the risk measurement ideas of VaR and CVaR to actual power transmission projects, the tail risk is usually determined by special Causes (such as major decision-making mistakes) can generally be ignored. If CVaR is used to consider such tail risks, the risks may in fact be exaggerated

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