Sunspot and moon declination angle information-based reservoir inflow forecast method

A technology for forecasting sunspots and incoming water, applied in data processing applications, instruments, design optimization/simulation, etc., can solve problems such as single index, low precision, and no systematic application, and achieve improved forecasting accuracy and huge The effect of power generation benefits and huge flood control and disaster reduction benefits

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-08-24
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, most of the methods for long-term forecasting of reservoir inflows are statistical methods, and a few also use astronomical indicators, but most of them use a single indicator, which has not formed a systematic application, and the accuracy is not high

Method used

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  • Sunspot and moon declination angle information-based reservoir inflow forecast method

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Embodiment Construction

[0011] Such as figure 1 As shown, this reservoir water forecasting method based on sunspots and lunar declination angle information, the method includes the following steps:

[0012] (1) Establish a sunspot process similarity forecasting model: dot plot the relative annual mean process line of sunspots; determine the sunspot cycle and phase; select the most similar historical cycle trajectory segment; select similar years; select forecast results, use selection The similar year is used as the typical year of the forecast year for qualitative forecasting of reservoir inflow;

[0013] (2) Establishing the similarity prediction model of the orbit of the lunar declination angle: plotting the maximum process line of the lunar declination angle over the years to form the orbit; judging the period and phase of the lunar declination angle; selecting the most similar historical cycle trajectory segment; similar Year selection; forecast result selection, using the selected similar year...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a sunspot and moon declination angle information-based reservoir inflow forecast method. The method comprises the steps of (1) building a sunspot process similarity forecast model; (2) building a moon declination angle running track similarity forecast model; and (3) performing forecast and comprehensive identification. The method greatly improves the forecast precision, can be effectively applied to power generation scheduling and flood control scheduling of reservoirs, and creates huge power generation benefits and huge flood control and disaster reduction benefits for enterprises and society respectively.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of information forecasting and application processing of astronomical information, in particular to a reservoir water forecasting method based on sunspot and lunar declination angle information. Background technique [0002] Reservoir inflow forecasting, especially long-term forecasting of reservoir inflow water, is difficult and has low accuracy, and it is difficult to put the forecast results into production application. Therefore, the current regulation of reservoirs generally adopts the regulation principle of "based on the forecast of falling rain and taking the long-term forecast as a reference". However, regardless of the requirements of power generation and flood control, there is an urgent need for high-precision long-term forecasting of reservoir water inflow, so that the reservoir can take scheduling measures such as large power generation in advance and full power generation, increase power gener...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q50/06G06F30/20Y02A10/40
Inventor 李文龙路振刚韩臣王力王进王艳波郑志
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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