A Method of Ultra-long-term Reservoir Inflow Forecasting

Abstract

The invention discloses a method of super-long term reservoir inflow forecasting. The method adopts multiple indexes and comprehensively takes the indexes into account, so accuracy is greatly improved, and the method can be effectively applied to reservoir scheduling for beneficial use and flood control scheduling and creates great power benefits for enterprises and huge flood control and disaster reduction benefits for the society. The method of super-long term reservoir inflow forecasting includes the steps that firstly, factors for reservoir inflow forecasting are determined, 28 astronomical and related indexes such as lunar calendar time when 24 solar terms happen, the Beginning Day of Spring, an intercalary month in the lunar calendar, the relative sunspot number and the declination of the moon are selected based on the sun, earth, moon moving trajectory characters, the solar radiation energy and the lunar tide-generating force; secondly, a 24 solar term process similarity comparison model is established; thirdly, a calendar aid decision making model is established; fourthly, an astronomy factor aid decision making model is established.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of information forecasting, in particular to a method for super-long-term reservoir water forecasting. Background technique [0002] Reservoir water forecasting, especially long-term forecasting and ultra-long-term forecasting, is difficult and has low precision, making it difficult to put it into production. Therefore, the current reservoir operation generally adopts the principle of "based on the forecast of falling rain and taking the long-term forecast as a reference". However, regardless of the requirements of power generation and flood control, there is an urgent need for high-precision long-term water inflow forecasting, so that the reservoir can take risk pre-control scheduling in advance, reduce the loss caused by the flood discharge of the reservoir, and increase power generation. [0003] At present, most of the methods for long-term forecasting of reservoir inflow are statistical methods, and a ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, most of the methods for long-term forecasting of reservoir inflows are statistical methods, and a few also use astronomical indicators, but most of them use a single indicator, which has not formed a systematic application, and the accuracy is not high

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