Super-long-term drainage basin/regional flood forecasting method

A flood forecasting and regional technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of single index, low accuracy, and no systematic application, etc., to achieve accuracy improvement, huge power generation benefits, and huge flood control Effect of DRR Benefits

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-07-04
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, most of the methods for long-term forecasting of river basins / regional floods are statistical methods, and a few also use astronomical indicators, but most of them use a single indicator, which has not formed a systematic application, and the accuracy is not high

Method used

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  • Super-long-term drainage basin/regional flood forecasting method

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Embodiment Construction

[0011] like figure 1 As shown in the figure, this ultra-long-term method for regional flood forecasting in a watershed includes the following steps:

[0012] (1) Establish a regional forecast model for the basin: apply a series of samples of catastrophic flood disasters in a basin, apply the ternary and quintuple commensurability forecast formulas for calculation, and obtain the forecast results (choose the number of ternary and quintuple commensurability formulas in the top The results of several digits); make statistics on the sample sequences that appear in the commensurability formula of the forecast results, select the samples with the most frequent occurrences, and use the spatial characteristics (occurrence location) and magnitude characteristics (flooding peaks) of the samples as the characteristics of the forecast results, reflecting The idea of ​​information forecasting, extracting non-accidental information from forecast formulas;

[0013] (2) Establish a forecast ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a super-long-term drainage basin/regional flood forecasting method. The method comprises the steps of (1) building a drainage basin/regional forecasting model; (2) building a specific place forecasting model; and (3) performing comprehensive identification on the forecast. In the step of building a drainage basin/regional forecasting model, series samples of extremely serious floods in a drainage basin are applied, calculation is performed by applying ternary and quinary commensurability forecasting formulas, and forecasting achievements are acquired; sample sequences emerged in a forecasting achievement commensurability formula are counted, a sample with the highest occurrence frequency is selected, spatial features and magnitude features of the sample act as forecasting achievement features, an idea of information forecasting is reflected, and non-accidental information is extracted from the forecasting formula.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of information forecasting and data processing, in particular to a method for forecasting regional floods in an ultra-long-term watershed. Background technique [0002] Regional flood forecasting in river basins, especially long-term forecasting and ultra-long-term forecasting, is difficult and low in precision, making it difficult to put into production applications. Therefore, at present, the principle of "taking rainfall forecast as the basis and long-term forecast as reference" is generally adopted in reservoir operation. However, regardless of the requirements of cascade reservoir power generation and watershed flood control, high-precision long-term / ultra-long-term flood forecasting is urgently needed, so that cascade reservoirs and watershed management agencies can take risk pre-control scheduling in advance, reduce flood damage in cascade reservoirs, and reduce flood discharge. Discard water and inc...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06Q50/265Y02A10/40
Inventor 李文龙路振刚李秀斌郭希海王进郑志
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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