Super-long-term drainage basin/regional flood forecasting method

Abstract

The invention discloses a super-long-term drainage basin / regional flood forecasting method. The method comprises the steps of (1) building a drainage basin / regional forecasting model; (2) building a specific place forecasting model; and (3) performing comprehensive identification on the forecast. In the step of building a drainage basin / regional forecasting model, series samples of extremely serious floods in a drainage basin are applied, calculation is performed by applying ternary and quinary commensurability forecasting formulas, and forecasting achievements are acquired; sample sequences emerged in a forecasting achievement commensurability formula are counted, a sample with the highest occurrence frequency is selected, spatial features and magnitude features of the sample act as forecasting achievement features, an idea of information forecasting is reflected, and non-accidental information is extracted from the forecasting formula.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of information forecasting and data processing, in particular to a method for forecasting regional floods in an ultra-long-term watershed. Background technique [0002] Regional flood forecasting in river basins, especially long-term forecasting and ultra-long-term forecasting, is difficult and low in precision, making it difficult to put into production applications. Therefore, at present, the principle of "taking rainfall forecast as the basis and long-term forecast as reference" is generally adopted in reservoir operation. However, regardless of the requirements of cascade reservoir power generation and watershed flood control, high-precision long-term / ultra-long-term flood forecasting is urgently needed, so that cascade reservoirs and watershed management agencies can take risk pre-control scheduling in advance, reduce flood damage in cascade reservoirs, and reduce flood discharge. Discard water and inc...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, most of the methods for long-term forecasting of river basins / regional floods are statistical methods, and a few also use astronomical indicators, but most of them use a single indicator, which has not formed a systematic application, and the accuracy is not high

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