Population prediction method for optimizing Leslie model based on genetic thought

A prediction method and genetic technology, which is applied in the field of population prediction based on the optimization of the Leslie model based on the idea of ​​genetics, can solve the problems such as the inability to simulate population iteration and the inability to make reasonable predictions, so as to increase the reliability, ensure the prediction accuracy, The effect of reducing demand

Pending Publication Date: 2019-06-07
CHANGAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

But they are all inherently flawed and cannot be reasonably predicted under existing population policies
For example, they ca

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  • Population prediction method for optimizing Leslie model based on genetic thought
  • Population prediction method for optimizing Leslie model based on genetic thought
  • Population prediction method for optimizing Leslie model based on genetic thought

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Embodiment Construction

[0034] The present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0035] Firstly, some unnecessary conditions are excluded through model assumptions to simplify the model, and then a dynamic programming model based on the idea of ​​genetics is constructed for intersex Leslie, and finally the data is brought in for prediction.

[0036] According to the present invention, the age-group fertility rate of women of childbearing age is only related to age and total fertility rate; the influence of large-scale international immigration, population migration and major natural disasters on the population is not considered. At the same time, the simplification of the model and the reliability of the prediction results are guaranteed, including the following steps:

[0037] Step 1. Establish an initial model: the time is in years, the time is in 5 years, and the age is calculated in terms of full years. The age group is divide...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a population prediction method for optimizing a Leslie model based on a genetic thought, and the method comprises the steps: taking time and age as parameters, carrying out the discretization of the time at the same age interval, and building an initial model; introducing a genetic thought and combining with the initial model to calculate the proportion of the non-unisexual women and the proportion of the non-unisexual women of the male at a certain time period; calculating the wish fertility of the females at a certain time period or the total number of the next generation of females obtained after fertility, and further obtaining the total fertility rate; constructing a dynamic planning model in combination with the Leslie model; making reasonable population quantity, population structure, total growth rate and tending ratio prediction according to the dynamic planning model; on the basis of less data, and accurately predicting the future development trend ofthe population and the change trend of the population structure under a growth policy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of computer technology, and in particular relates to a population forecasting method based on the idea of ​​genetics to optimize the Leslie model. Background technique [0002] As an important factor affecting social and economic development, population has become one of the most concerned issues in the world. Therefore, studying the changes in the population structure of a country or region not only helps to explain various economic phenomena in the country or region, but also can effectively predict future economic changes. [0003] However, the current population forecasting model still has some technical difficulties to be solved. One of them is the impact of population policy on population development. Since our country is a country with a large population, in order to ensure an appropriate population size and an appropriate age structure, our country has proposed policies such as "family planning", "separate t...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06N3/12
Inventor 侯俊张阳马秉正谢莹赵嘉成
Owner CHANGAN UNIV
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