Container ship voyage encasement quantity prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a container ship voyage encasement quantity prediction method, which comprises the following steps of firstly, determining the voyage encasement quantity influence factors, inputting variables, and obtaining the difference information between arrays; establishing a difference information space, and establishing and calculating a difference information grey correlation degree; establishing an order relation among the factors, and determining the weights among the influence factors; secondly, randomly generating a training set and a test set, performing normalization processing on the data, and introducing an insensitive loss function on the basis of classification of the support vector machine to obtain a regression type support vector machine; and finally, evaluating the performance and the prediction effect of the model by adopting a mean square error, an average absolute percentage error and a correlation coefficient. According to the method, the subsequent harbor box quantity information is predicted, and the influence of the subsequent harbor box quantity information on the subsequent harbor loading and unloading is taken into consideration during current harbor loading, so that the basis is provided for full-course loading optimization, and the method has the important practical significance.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of container stowage, in particular to a method for predicting the loading volume of a container ship voyage. Background technique [0002] For container terminals, the container voyage packing volume information is an important reference for terminal managers to formulate yard stowage, yard cargo planning, truck scheduling planning, ship berth planning, and terminal bridge crane scheduling. The prediction of container voyage loading volume can improve terminal operation efficiency, realize intelligent management, and eventually move towards unmanned container terminal. For container stowage operators, the forecast of the voyage’s container volume is the premise of formulating the entire route’s stowage plan, that is, at the port of departure, it is necessary to grasp the container loading information of the subsequent port. [0003] The change of container ship voyage loading volume is affected by many factors, and ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Various factors have different influences on container ship voyage loading volume, which is difficult to describe with precise mathematical models

Among the many factors that affect the loading volume of a voyage, each factor has a different degree of influence. If this difference is ignored, the forecast results will be distorted.

Images