Hilly area river base flow series interpolation prolonging method based on Copula function

Abstract

The invention discloses a hilly area river base flow series interpolation prolonging method based on a Copula function. The method comprises the following steps: collecting long-series flow data of hydrological stations; calculating a series of river base flows and river runoff flows in representative years; and on the basis of determining an edge probability distribution function of the river base flow rate and the river base flow rate, constructing a joint probability distribution function of the river base flow rate and the river base flow rate, further solving a conditional probability distribution function of the river base flow rate when the river base flow rate is given, and finally performing river base flow rate series interpolation extension in non-representative years. According to the method, the statistical theory basis is high, the nonlinear relation between the river-base flow and the river-base flow can be accurately captured, and the river-base flow and the river-base flow are allowed to obey non-normal distribution. In addition, the river base flow is randomly interpolated and prolonged based on the Copula function, the long-series statistical parameter characteristics of the river base flow can be kept, and the actual characteristics of the river base flow are well reflected.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of water resource evaluation, in particular to a method for interpolation and extension of river base flow series in hilly areas based on Copula functions. Background technique [0002] Due to the limited underground water storage capacity in hilly areas and the deep cut of the river bed, the base flow of the river is generally approximately equal to the amount of groundwater resources, and it is also the repetition of the amount of surface and groundwater resources. Therefore, the base flow of rivers is an important content in hydrological analysis and calculation, water resource evaluation and storm flood analysis in hilly areas. According to different calculation principles, the commonly used calculation methods of typical annual river base flow mainly include graphical method, hydrological model method, isotope method, mathematical physics method and numerical simulation method, etc. The calculation results of dif...

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Problems solved by technology

At present, there is no literature that introduces the Copula function into the study of interpolation and extension of river base flow series in hilly areas

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