River-crossing lake water level simulation method based on a Copula function

A simulation method, technology of water level

Pending Publication Date: 2019-09-27
江西省水利科学研究院
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Problems solved by technology

At present, there is no literature that introduces the Copula function into the water level simulation research of Tongjiang lakes

Method used

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  • River-crossing lake water level simulation method based on a Copula function
  • River-crossing lake water level simulation method based on a Copula function
  • River-crossing lake water level simulation method based on a Copula function

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Embodiment Construction

[0021] The present invention will be further described below by means of embodiments and in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0022] Such as Figure 1-Figure 3 As shown, a water level simulation method of Tongjiang lake based on the Copula function collects the water level of the outer river, the inflow of the basin and the water level of the lake. On the basis of determining the marginal probability distribution function, the water level of the outer river, the inflow of the basin and the lake The joint probability distribution function of the water level, and then deduce the conditional probability distribution function of the lake water level when the water level of the outer river and the inflow of the basin are given, so as to simulate the lake water level and analyze the uncertainty. figure 1 It is the calculation flowchart of the present embodiment, and it is carried out according to the following steps:

[0023] 1. Collect data on the water level of the ou...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a river-crossing lake water level simulation method based on a Copula function. The method comprises the following steps: collecting water level data of an outer river, drainage basin inflow and lake; and on the basis of determining an edge probability distribution function, constructing a joint probability distribution function of the outer river water level, the basin inflow and the lake water level by utilizing a Copula function, and further deducing a conditional probability distribution function of the lake water level when the outer river water level and the basin inflow are given, thereby carrying out lake water level simulation and uncertainty analysis. The method not only can describe the non-normal characteristics of the water level of the outer river, the inflow of the drainage basin and the water level of the lake and effectively capture the nonlinear and heterovariance correlation structure, but also has stronger statistical theoretical basis and wide application range, and can quantitatively evaluate the uncertainty of lake water level simulation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of lake hydrology, in particular to a method for simulating the water level of lakes through rivers based on Copula functions. Background technique [0002] Water level is the most direct and important index to represent the change of lake water regime. Accurate simulation of lake water level is of great significance for lake management and protection. The water level of the Tongjiang lake is affected by both the water level of the outer river and the inflow of the basin, and the interaction between the lake level and its influencing factors is very complicated. [0003] The commonly used water level simulation methods are divided into two categories: hydrodynamic model and statistical model. Although the hydrodynamic model has high simulation accuracy, this method requires detailed terrain data, boundary data and parameter information, which are often difficult to obtain, and the hydrodynamic model takes a lot of ti...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/20
Inventor 刘章君许新发胡建民张范平成静清温天福牛娇胡久伟
Owner 江西省水利科学研究院
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