Forecasting method for port area short-time traffic flow under model of reservation cargo concentration in port

Abstract

The invention discloses a forecasting method for a port area short-time traffic flow under a model of reservation cargo concentration in port, which belongs to the technical field of port area traffic management. The method comprises the following steps of: dividing traffic generation regions and attract regions, and obtaining the sub-period distribution rule of historical traffic in various traffic generation regions and attract regions; determining the traffic attract regions and the traffic volume; determining the corresponding back storage yards, obtaining the distribution of the traffic generation regions and the traffic volume; determining the relevant section at the upstream of the forecast road section according to the extension length at the opposite direction of the upstream-road traffic flow of the forecast road section in forecast periods; establishing a knowledge base; measuring the turn rate for the upstream/downstream road sections in each forecast period in real time; extracting the turn rate for the upstream/downstream road sections of the turn rate of the traffic flow in former Nz periods before the current forecast period p; estimating the weighted turn rate in the former Nz short-time forecast periods; calculating the inflow comprehensive saturations in the forecast road section li; generating the traffic flow forecast state vector; searching a road sectiontraffic flow corresponding to the generated state vector in the knowledge base, forecasting the traffic flow of the forecast road section in the next period of the current forecast period p; generating new search strategy, and updating the knowledge base. The invention can be used for short-time traffic flow forecast, and avoids generation of large congestion points and spreading of congestion regions.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of port traffic management and relates to a port traffic flow prediction method. Background technique [0002] The long-term experience in traffic management and planning in the port area shows that without accurate traffic flow forecasting, the above measures cannot effectively solve the existing traffic problems in the port. The development of urban traffic flow forecasting technology provides a good experience for traffic flow forecasting in the port area, but the complexity and uncertainty of the traffic in the port area determine that it is necessary to carry out targeted research on traffic flow forecasting methods in the port area to meet The need for scientific planning and management of port traffic. [0003] The urban traffic flow forecasting method cannot be directly used in port area traffic flow forecasting. It can be seen from the retrieved data that basically the existing traffic flow managem...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0007] Urban road traffic demand is mainly based on people's travel, and is affected by many uncertain factors such as changes in the na...

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