The invention discloses a forecasting method for a port area short-time
traffic flow under a model of reservation cargo concentration in port, which belongs to the technical field of port area
traffic management. The method comprises the following steps of: dividing traffic generation regions and attract regions, and obtaining the sub-period
distribution rule of historical traffic in various traffic generation regions and attract regions; determining the traffic attract regions and the
traffic volume; determining the corresponding back storage yards, obtaining the distribution of the traffic generation regions and the
traffic volume; determining the relevant section at the upstream of the forecast road section according to the extension length at the opposite direction of the upstream-
road traffic flow of the forecast road section in forecast periods; establishing a
knowledge base; measuring the
turn rate for the upstream / downstream road sections in each forecast period in real time; extracting the
turn rate for the upstream / downstream road sections of the
turn rate of the
traffic flow in former Nz periods before the current forecast period p; estimating the weighted turn rate in the former Nz short-time forecast periods; calculating the inflow comprehensive saturations in the forecast road section li; generating the
traffic flow forecast
state vector; searching a road sectiontraffic flow corresponding to the generated
state vector in the
knowledge base, forecasting the traffic flow of the forecast road section in the next period of the current forecast period p; generating new search strategy, and updating the
knowledge base. The invention can be used for short-time traffic flow forecast, and avoids generation of large congestion points and spreading of congestion regions.