Underground water model output uncertainty analysis method

Abstract

The invention discloses an underground water model output uncertainty analysis method in combination of a frequency analysis method and a sensitivity analysis method. The frequency analysis process comprises a parameter estimating process and a supposed checking process, wherein a typical distribution function in 7 is selected as an alternative probability density function, the supposed checking is carried out, and a proper probability density function is selected for the underground water level sequence. The sensitivity analysis method comprises stepwise regression analysis and mutual entropy analysis; the stepwise regression analysis can be used for analyzing the trend of the uncertain importance of an input variable, and the mutual entropy analysis can be used for well identifying the uncertainty factor. The method can be used for making up the deficiency in research content of the traditional uncertainty analysis method, analyzing the probability distribution characteristic and identifying the key uncertainty factor influencing the variable probability distribution, thus the production and source of the underground water model uncertainty can be well understood, feedback is provided for the data acquiring work of the underground water model, and the uncertainty of the model is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a model output uncertainty analysis method, in particular to a groundwater model output uncertainty analysis method. Background technique [0002] With the development of numerical simulation methods and computer technology, groundwater models have become a basic tool for groundwater resources management and planning. The groundwater system is a complex and open giant system, which is affected by hydrology, meteorology, geological conditions and human activities. Due to the limitation of observation data, when the groundwater model is used for numerical simulation, the simulation results often deviate from the actual observation, that is, the uncertainty of the groundwater model, which affects the reliability of groundwater simulation. Therefore, in order to reduce the risk of groundwater simulation and prediction, the uncertainty analysis of groundwater models has become a hot research topic at home and abroad. [0003] At p...

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Problems solved by technology

However, these methods cannot analyze the probability distribution characteristics of the groundwater model output and its influencing factors

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