Photovoltaic power generation power prediction method and system

A technology of photovoltaic power generation power and prediction method, which is applied in the field of power system and can solve the problems of low data acquisition accuracy and low photovoltaic power generation power prediction accuracy.

Active Publication Date: 2014-01-08
GUANGZHOU POWER SUPPLY CO LTD +1
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No matter which method is used, there is a disadvantage of low accuracy of ph

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  • Photovoltaic power generation power prediction method and system
  • Photovoltaic power generation power prediction method and system
  • Photovoltaic power generation power prediction method and system

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[0112] In order to make the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention more comprehensible, specific implementations of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention. However, the present invention can be implemented in many other ways different from those described here, and those skilled in the art can make similar improvements without departing from the connotation of the present invention, so the present invention is not limited by the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0113] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the technical field of the invention. The terms used herein in the description of the present invention are for the purpose of describin...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic power generation power prediction method and system. A correlation analysis method is adopted to analyze historical data and determine a radiation intensity predication correlation time and a power generation power predication correlation time. A BP neural network is adopted to train a solar radiation intensity prediction sample and a photovoltaic power generation power prediction sample so as to obtain a solar radiation intensity prediction model and a photovoltaic power generation power prediction model. The solar radiation intensity prediction model is utilized to compute sun radiation intensity at prediction time of a prediction day; the photovoltaic power generation power prediction model is utilized to compute photovoltaic power generation power at prediction time of the prediction day. A grey relational analysis method is adopted to remove solar radiation intensity at the radiation intensity correlation time with a low relational degree in the historical data, and the predication accuracy of the solar radiation intensity is improved. By the adoption of the good nonlinear function approximation capability of the BP neural network, the solar radiation intensity prediction sample and the photovoltaic power generation power prediction sample are trained, the prediction models are built, and predication accuracy of the prediction models is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power systems, in particular to a photovoltaic power prediction method and system. Background technique [0002] Photovoltaic power generation is an effective way to utilize solar energy, but the output power of photovoltaic power generation system has the characteristics of discontinuity and uncertainty. After the photovoltaic power generation system is connected to the grid, it will have periodic impacts on the grid, and the disturbance of the output power of the photovoltaic system may affect the stability of the grid. Therefore, forecasting the output power of photovoltaic power plants is helpful for coordinating the coordinated configuration of conventional power sources and photovoltaic power generation, adjusting the scheduling plan in a timely manner, and rationally arranging the operation mode of the power grid. [0003] The prediction of photovoltaic power generation generally adopts artificial...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/02
CPCY04S10/60Y04S10/50
Inventor 陆国俊王勇王劲许中崔晓飞马智远陈国炎马素霞黄慧红杜堉榕王军
Owner GUANGZHOU POWER SUPPLY CO LTD
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