Typhoon automated forecasting method based on EC/JMA global lattice point forecast data

Abstract

The invention discloses a typhoon automated forecasting method based on EC / JMA global lattice point forecast data. The typhoon automated forecasting method based on the EC / JMA global lattice point forecast data integrates three functions of typhoon path forecast, landing point forecast and typhoon intensity forecast. Based on the obtained EC / JMA forecast data, cyclone centers are found according to structural features of cyclone wind fields, and cyclone centers not meeting conditions are removed by judging wind field structures and ring current intensities of all cyclones. Then, intensity features of wind rings surrounding the centers are obtained according to a polar coordinate interpolation method. By the adoption of the method, the situation that multiple cyclone centers appear simultaneously in a multi-typhoon period is taken into account. Under the condition that typhoon path forecast information is obtained, coastline points in 0.5 longitude and latitude range surrounding a forecasting path and a coastline are solved to serve as landing points of the typhoon path by combining data of the coastline.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an automatic typhoon forecast method, in particular to an automatic typhoon forecast method based on EC / JMA global grid point forecast data. Background technique [0002] In the process of tropical cyclone activities, it is often accompanied by strong winds, heavy rain, huge waves and storm surges. In order to reduce the severe disasters and losses caused by tropical cyclones, it is necessary to accurately forecast the track and intensity of tropical cyclones. In terms of research on the occurrence and development of typhoons, in previous studies, the whole wind field data or satellite remote sensing data were mostly used, combined with the method of human eye recognition to identify the tropical cyclone center, but this method often has certain subjective errors, and the work Quite cumbersome. With the gradual enrichment of typhoon detection methods, the gradual improvement of the level of typhoon theory, and the rapid devel...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In order to solve the problems of typhoon identification error and cumbersome process of manual forecast by traditional meteorological departments in the prior art, the present invention provides an automatic forecasting method that provides integrated typhoon track forecast products, wind circle intensity forecast products and landing point forecast products

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