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Aquatic traffic safety risk simulation method

A technology of traffic safety and simulation methods, which is applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., and can solve problems such as parameter value conflicts

Active Publication Date: 2016-02-03
SHANGHAI MARITIME UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a water traffic safety risk simulation method, thereby processing random information and fuzzy information of water traffic safety risks at the same time, and can solve the problem of parameter value conflict

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  • Aquatic traffic safety risk simulation method
  • Aquatic traffic safety risk simulation method
  • Aquatic traffic safety risk simulation method

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Embodiment Construction

[0042] In order to make the technical means, creative features, goals and effects of the present invention easy to understand, the present invention will be further elaborated below in conjunction with the specific implementation of the risk assessment of navigation safety in the water area of ​​Shanghai Port Bridge Area.

[0043] 1. Design water traffic safety risk simulation method

[0044] The MC simulation (Monte Carlo simulation) method can better solve the randomness problem in the risk measurement, and the FCE (fuzzy comprehensive evaluation) method can effectively deal with the fuzzy information in the risk measurement. The risk measurement of water traffic involves the processing of both random information and fuzzy information. In order to deal with the random information and fuzzy information in the risk measurement of water traffic at the same time, based on the MC simulation method and the FCE simulation method, the water traffic safety risk MC-FCM is constructed. ...

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Abstract

The invention provides an aquatic traffic safety risk simulation method. According to traffic safety risk factors, a function related to a factor matrix, each factor relative weight matrix and an evaluation matrix is built to be a traffic safety risk simulation model; parameter estimation is conducted to each factor of the simulation model according to probability distribution and each factor simulation values can be generated at random; the simulation values generated at random are substituted to the simulation model; single factor risk is calculated via a fuzzy evaluation method; according to relative weight of each factor, comprehensive risk of a plurality of factors are calculated via the fuzzy evaluation method; results of the comprehensive risk calculation for the plurality of factors can be defuzzy-processed; the process from the generation of the simulation value to the de-fuzzy process is repeatedly simulated for times; and aquatic traffic safety risk simulation results are output. Aquatic traffic safety risk random information and fuzzy information can be processed; and parameter value conflicts can be solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of water traffic, the field of simulation science and technology, and the field of safety science and engineering, in particular to a water traffic safety risk simulation method. Background technique [0002] Water traffic safety risks have temporal fluctuations and spatial differences, and traditional risk assessment methods can rarely reflect the temporal and spatial differences of water safety risks being evaluated. At the same time, the traditional research on the risk assessment of water traffic safety focuses more on the "dangerousness" of the evaluated waters. In the evaluation index value, the risk factors with time fluctuation characteristics are averaged (such as visibility, wind, current, etc.) , evaluation indicators with spatial distribution differences (such as water depth, channel curvature, etc.) are often taken from the most dangerous value of this factor in the evaluated waters (such as the depth of ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
Inventor 黄常海高德毅彭宇高敏胡甚平耿鹤军杜晔
Owner SHANGHAI MARITIME UNIVERSITY
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