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Probabilistic forecasting method and system of coastal gale caused by tropical cyclone

A technology for tropical cyclones and strong winds, applied in weather forecasting, meteorology, climate sustainability, etc., can solve problems such as the inability to make timely and accurate forecasts of the probability of strong winds in coastal areas caused by tropical cyclones

Active Publication Date: 2016-03-23
SHENZHEN INST OF ADVANCED TECH CHINESE ACAD OF SCI +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problem that the traditional technology cannot timely and accurately make the probability forecast of the strong wind in the coastal area caused by the tropical cyclone based on the theory of mathematical statistics

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  • Probabilistic forecasting method and system of coastal gale caused by tropical cyclone
  • Probabilistic forecasting method and system of coastal gale caused by tropical cyclone
  • Probabilistic forecasting method and system of coastal gale caused by tropical cyclone

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Embodiment Construction

[0041] In order to facilitate the understanding of the present invention, the present invention will be described more fully below with reference to the associated drawings. Preferred embodiments of the invention are shown in the accompanying drawings. However, the present invention can be embodied in many different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described herein. On the contrary, the purpose of providing these embodiments is to make the disclosure of the present invention more thorough and comprehensive.

[0042] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the technical field of the invention. The terminology used herein in the description of the present invention is only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments, and is not intended to limit the present invention. As used herein, the term "and / or" includes any and all combinations of one or more of th...

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Abstract

The present invention provides a probabilistic forecasting method of a coastal gale caused by a tropical cyclone. The method comprises a step of collecting historical tropical cyclone data which has a gale influence on an area to be measured and hour instantaneous maximum wind speed history data of the area to be measured at a corresponding time, a step of classifying the historical tropical cyclone data according to intensity to obtain the data of various types of tropical cyclones, a step of dividing the forecasting range of the area to be measured into grids, and calculating the probability of the gale of the area to be measured caused by tropical cyclones in the grids and drawing the gale probability distribution map of the area to be measured caused by the various tropical cyclones, and a step of predicating and outputting the gale probability of the area to be measured combined with the gale probability distribution map according to the strength information and path information of a tropical cyclone to be measured in the future. The invention also provides a corresponding probabilistic forecasting system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of analysis and measurement control, in particular to a method and system for probabilistic forecasting of strong winds in coastal areas caused by tropical cyclones. Background technique [0002] According to international practice, tropical cyclones are divided into tropical depressions according to the maximum wind force near the center of tropical cyclones (also commonly known as hurricanes, typhoons or tropical storms, etc.): Tropical depression (Tropical depression), maximum wind speed 6-7, (10.8-17.1m / s); Tropicalstorm, the maximum wind speed is 8~9, (17.2~24.4m / s); Severe tropical storm, the maximum wind speed is 10~11, (24.5~32.6m / s); Typhoon (Ty-phoon ), the maximum wind speed is 12~13 (32.7m / s~41.4m / s); severe typhoon (severetyphoon), the maximum wind speed is 14~15 (41.5m / s~50.9m / s); super typhoon (SuperTyphoon ), the maximum wind speed ≥ grade 16 (≥ 51.0m / s). [0003] Tropical cyclones are powe...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10
CPCG01W1/10Y02A90/10
Inventor 李晴岚李广鑫孙立群曹春燕李程彭玉龙
Owner SHENZHEN INST OF ADVANCED TECH CHINESE ACAD OF SCI
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