36 results about "Tropical cyclogenesis" patented technology

The invention relates to a tropical cyclone full path simulation method facing disaster risk assessment. The tropical cyclone full path simulation method comprises concrete steps: a first step of establishing a start point model, and taking samples to simulate yearly occurrence frequency of tropical cyclones and generate start point information; a second step of establishing a marching model, and simulating the moving speed and orientation of the tropical cyclones to form a tropical cyclone path; a third step of establishing strength models including an ocean surface strength development model and a land strength attenuation model, and selecting the corresponding strength model in dependence on the latitude and longitude of the next point in the tropical cyclone path; a fourth step of examining the path simulation result, and carrying out statistical result examination and statistical rule analysis on the randomly-generated tropical cyclone path and the strength large sample; and a fifth step of establishing a typhoon wind field engineering model and a boundary layer model, calibrating wind field model key parameters, calculating the typhoon wind speed on the simulated point, and carrying out typhoon risk disaster assessment. The tropical cyclone full path simulation method facing disaster risk assessment can achieve refined evaluation, and is accurate and reliable in result, high in calculating efficiency and wide in application scope.

The invention provides a method for excavating a tropical cyclone motion track channel, which comprises the following steps: A, segmenting the space and a tropical cyclone motion track by a grid to obtain segments of tropical cyclone motion sub-tracks; B, computing the similarity between the tropical cyclone motion sub-tracks by using the adjusted discrete Frechet distance; C, hierarchically clustering the tropical cyclone motion sub-tracks to obtain track clusters of the tropical cyclone motion sub-tracks; and D, connecting the track clusters of the tropical cyclone motion sub-tracks to obtain the tropical cyclone motion track channel. The method can effectively discover the tropical cyclone motion track channel, combines historical tropical cyclone path data to excavate the tropical cyclone motion behavior mode in specific areas, provides a direct and effective tool for analyzing and predicting typhoon disaster, and provides decision support for disaster prevention and reduction.

A method of predicting the destructive capacity of a tropical cyclone based on a new Wind Destructive Potential (WDP) and Storm Surge Destructive Potential (SDP) scales which provide a manner to rate the severity of hurricanes and typhoons, based on information provided in operational forecast and warning products, experimental wind field products, or gridded numerical weather prediction model outputs. These new scales are formulated to be consistent with the physical mechanism through which tropical cyclones impact coastal communities through wind, storm surges and wave damage.

The invention discloses a tropical cyclone forecasting method based on depth target detection and numerical weather forecasting, which comprises the following steps of constructing a training data setaccording to a plurality of forecasting elements in a tropical cyclone historical record combined historical numerical weather forecasting product; according to the training data set, training a depth target detection model to obtain model parameters, and taking the model obtained through training as a tropical cyclone recognition model; and according to the tropical cyclone identification model,identifying the central position and the scale of the tropical cyclone from the real-time numerical weather forecast product forecast field, and outputting as the forecast results. According to the invention, the accurate prediction of the path and the scale of the tropical cyclone is realized, and the accurate prediction of the path and the scale of the tropical cyclone has an important effect on prevention and mitigation of related disasters.

A method for preventing the tornado, lurricane, flood and hail includes forcasting them, artificially forming one or more raining bandsin cumulonimbus, and artificial raining to eliminate the natural condition of generating them.

The present invention provides a probabilistic forecasting method of a coastal gale caused by a tropical cyclone. The method comprises a step of collecting historical tropical cyclone data which has a gale influence on an area to be measured and hour instantaneous maximum wind speed history data of the area to be measured at a corresponding time, a step of classifying the historical tropical cyclone data according to intensity to obtain the data of various types of tropical cyclones, a step of dividing the forecasting range of the area to be measured into grids, and calculating the probability of the gale of the area to be measured caused by tropical cyclones in the grids and drawing the gale probability distribution map of the area to be measured caused by the various tropical cyclones, and a step of predicating and outputting the gale probability of the area to be measured combined with the gale probability distribution map according to the strength information and path information of a tropical cyclone to be measured in the future. The invention also provides a corresponding probabilistic forecasting system.

An apparatus for inhibiting the formation of tropical cyclones, comprising an elongated rigid tube through which cooler water is pumped from below to the near-ocean surface, thereby depriving incipient tropical cyclones of the heat energy they require for further development. The tube contains a pump comprising a fixed flap valve and a movable flap valve. The movable flap valve is attached to a drive disk encircling the tube at a depth where ambient waters have little vertical motion. The wave-driven vertical motion of the elongated tube causes the movable flap valve to oscillate with respect to the fixed flap valve, thereby pumping seawater upward onto the near-ocean surface. The apparatus also can navigate to alternative locations by means of a propulsion / steering system, and it can submerge to a safe depth to avoid oncoming vessels and potentially damaging seas. A fleet of apparatuses is required to provide the necessary cooling effect.

The invention provides a forecasting method and system of a speed of an instantaneous extremely strong wind caused by a tropical cyclone at a coastal region. The method comprises the following steps: historical tropical cyclone data having a windy influence on a to-be-measured area as well as historical data of instantaneous extremely strong wind speed per hour of the to-be-measured area within corresponding time are collected; according to the strength, the historical tropical cyclone data are categorized to obtain data of various tropical cyclones; a forecasting range of the to-be-measured area is divided into a plurality of square longitude-latitude grids with areas of 1degree * 1degree, and for each kind of tropical cyclone, a path point with a maximum instantaneous extremely strong wind speed at the to-be-measured area is selected in the grid for the same tropical cyclone, and distances of all path points and the to-be-measured area and orientations are calculated; a position and space distribution diagram of the instantaneous extremely strong wind speeds caused by the various tropical cyclones at the to-be-measured area is made; and according to strength and path information of a tropical cyclone that is going to be forecasted in future, an instantaneous extremely strong wind that is going to be caused at the to-be-measured area is forecasted and outputted by combining the instantaneous extremely strong wind position and space distribution diagram. In addition, the invention also provides a corresponding forecasting system.

The invention discloses a system for discriminating similar tropical cyclone (TC) paths. The system includes a path preprocessing module for preprocessing TC paths; a path morphology discrimination module for respectively calculating the extreme point segmentation degree of any two optional TC paths and the overall moving direction and overlap degree in the east-west direction; a radial class pathidealization module for receiving the two TC paths of the path morphology discrimination module and determining whether the two TC paths satisfy radial class similarity conditions and zonal class similarity conditions; a zonal class path idealization module for receiving the two TC paths of the path morphology discrimination module from the path morphology discrimination module and transforming atriangle into two radial class idealized paths; a similarity index calculation module for receiving the radial class idealized paths and calculating a similarity area index of the radial class idealized paths; and a similarity index determination module for determining and outputting a similarity index according to the number of paths in the two paths the extreme points of the latitude do not approach the end based on the two paths.

The invention discloses a tropical cyclone dynamic simulation method based on time-varying weather data, and belongs to the computer graphics related technology. The method mainly comprises a tropical cyclone modeling method based on the weather data, a cloud drawing algorithm method of multiple forward scatterings, and a tropical cyclone simulation algorithm method of a fluid based on a position, and the specific steps are as follows: first analyzing the time-varying weather data of the tropical cyclone to extract velocity field data for the fluid simulation use, extracting cloud intensity related data, establishing a particle model of a cloud at the same time, modeling graphic metadata suitable for the computer graphics drawing; and then vividly displaying the graphic metadata; and finally realizing the simulation display of the tropical cyclone in the weather data by use of the fluid simulation algorithm based on the position according to the established graphic model.

The invention provides a method for manufacturing a tropical cyclone wind zone, which comprises the following steps of: acquiring time and wind scale of a plurality of known wind rounds in a tropical cyclone event and data of wind round boundary geographic coordinates, and performing ellipse fitting on the boundary of each wind round to form a fit ellipse wind round; interpolating the fit ellipse wind round of the same wind scale to obtain a plurality of time-intensive-related interpolated wind rounds according to the determined time interval, and making the plurality of fit ellipse wind rounds and a plurality of interpolated wind rounds at the same wind scale form an envelope, wherein a zone surrounded by the obtained envelope line is a wind zone subjected to the wind scale, and forming the tropical cyclone wind zone of the tropical cyclone event by superposing the wind zone at each wind scale.

The invention discloses a method for measuring the potential destructiveness of a tropical cyclone (TC). The method comprises the following steps of: (1) measuring the maximum average wind speed at a central position of the optimal route of the TC every six hours according to a route of the TC; (2) determining an influence range of the TC; and (3) calculating a tropical cyclone potential impact (TCPI) index, and determining the potential destructiveness of the tropical cyclone. By the method, the potential destructiveness of each tropical cyclone can be monitored and evaluated; the impact of a typhoon disaster can be evaluated objectively, scientifically and accurately according to the destructiveness of the tropical cyclone in one region, so people can defense the typhoon disaster to reduce casualties and property economic losses caused by the typhoon cyclone; therefore, the typhoon defense capacity can be improved.

The invention provides a method for constructing a tropical cyclone path prediction model, which comprises the following steps: according to the tropical cyclone path sample data, constructing a firstnumber of climate persistence characteristic factors with a prediction time limit of a set time length; according to the satellite remote sensing data whose data time interval is the set time length,each meteorological parameter in the satellite remote sensing data and the characteristic factors of the forecast object being respectively calculated; a tropical cyclone path prediction model beingconstructed according to the first number of climate persistence characteristic factors and the characteristic factors of each meteorological parameter and forecast object in the satellite remote sensing data. The above technical scheme realizes the construction of automatic prediction model of tropical cyclone track, which can be used to replace manual automatic tropical cyclone track prediction.

The invention provides a tropical cyclone potential impact evaluation method based on a comprehensive intensity index. The method comprises the following steps: (1) dividing plane space into latitude-longitude grids of which the sizes are 2 degrees * 2 degrees, and carrying out statistics of the inter-decade path orientation time level of a tropical cyclone path passing each grid according to an inter-decade scale; (2) calculating the energy dissipation exponential value of a tropical cyclone in each time level in each grid, and accumulating the energy dissipation exponential values of the tropical cyclone in all time levels in the grid to obtain the grid inter-decade energy dissipation exponential value of the grid, wherein the grid inter-decade energy dissipation exponential value serves as an index reflecting the comprehensive intensity of the tropical cyclone; (3) acquiring a grid inter-decade path comparison orientation time level corresponding to each level of tropical cyclones at each magnitude of grid inter-decade energy dissipation exponential values according to the mean wind speed of all levels of tropical cyclones; and (4) building potential impact levels of the tropical cyclones, and evaluating potential impacts of the tropical cyclones on different regions. The tropical cyclone potential impact evaluation method can effectively evaluate the potential impacts of the tropical cyclones, and has important values in defending against tropical cyclone disasters and improving tropical cyclone disaster forecasting level.

The invention discloses a method and a system for establishing storm surge overtopping and flooding analysis based on a GIS (Geographic Information System) technology, and the method comprises the following steps: firstly, reconstructing historical tropical cyclone data of a research area by utilizing constructed geographic information and a historical typhoon database and adopting a typhoon windfield empirical model; secondly, determining a calculation range of a research area, and establishing a storm surge refined numerical model based on an ADCIRC ocean mode; and finally, after the reliability and accuracy of the numerical model are determined, constructing an extreme tropical cyclone of the research area, designing the maximum water increase caused by the extreme tropical cyclone tomeet the astronomical high tide level, performing coupling calculation to obtain the possible maximum storm surge water level of the simulation area, and calculating the overtopping or collapsing water flow of the storm surge in combination with the seawall elevation. The method has the advantages that on the premise that the water flow calculation during storm surge overtopping and dike collapsing is increased, the volume method is adopted for calculating the water level of the submerged area, the GIS technology is utilized for building the overtopping and submerging analysis model, and the overtopping and submerging simulation result is visually displayed.

The invention provides method for treating a tropical cyclone, a tropical storm or a tropical depression. The method includes reducing unloading of cloud parcel water in the tropical cyclone, tropical storm or tropical depression. In a preferred embodiment, unloading of cloud parcel water is accomplished by seeding with cloud condensation nuclei, such as sub-micron ammonium sulfate particles. The treatment is preferably applied to the lower parts of peripheral clouds in the tropical cyclone, tropical storm or tropical depression below the 0 C isotherm level.

The invention provides a multi-model online comprehensive calculation method for power transmission line wind pressure caused by a tropical cyclone. According to the technical scheme, an iterative structure with four inner and outer nested layers is involved, wherein whether a power transmission line wind pressure calculation module is started or not is judged according to published real-time cyclone path information in an outermost layer; a sub-process for decomposing and iteratively calculating a migrated wind speed component and a circulated wind speed component is implemented in the second outermost layer; a sub-process for iteratively correcting the weight of each circular current component calculation model is implemented in the second innermost layer; an optimization and identification iterative sub-process for maximum wind speed radius and shape parameters is implemented in the innermost layer. According to the method, the shortcoming of low reliability of a calculation result obtained by a single model is overcome, and the reliability of the calculation result is improved; the method is used for more accurately calculating the value of wind pressure on an overhead power transmission line under a tropical cyclone wind field, and identifying the power transmission line probably to be damaged, a corresponding time window and the probability of damage to the line.

The invention discloses a tropical cyclone automatic intensity determination method based on active and passive microwave remote sensing observation. The method is based on a correlation vector machine combined with tropical cyclones obtained through active and passive microwave remote sensing observation. The method comprises: automatically acquiring brightness temperature of the microwave radiometer and information of a sea surface wind field of the microwave scatterometer; and then according to the tropical cyclone intensity estimation model, processing brightness temperature and sea surface wind field information within the range of passing time close to one hour and latitude and longitude of the typhoon center of 0.5-2.5 degrees, and finally obtaining the tropical cyclone grade of theground near the tropical cyclone center. The method is simple in processing process, high in practicability, low in cost, high in precision and easy to operate, and does not need any assumption for the performance of the tropical cyclone intensity estimation system.

The invention provides a tropical cyclone ensemble prediction method based on target system disturbance. The method comprises steps that 1), an initial background field of a mode is determined; 2), scale separation of the initial background field is performed to obtain a large-scale background field and small and medium-scale disturbance fields; 3), the separated small-scale field is disturbed; 4), the separated large-scale field is superimposed with the disturbed small and medium-scale fields, and tropical cyclone ensemble prediction initial members based on target system disturbance are obtained; and 5), the initial ensemble members obtained in the 4) are used as the initial field to carry out tropical cyclone ensemble prediction. The method is advantaged in that the background field isdecomposed into the slowly varying large-scale field and the fast-changing small and medium-scale fields, the small and medium-scale fields are disturbed to obtain the tropical cyclone ensemble prediction initial members based on target system disturbance, a problem that the global mode medium and long term prediction disturbance technology is often utilized for tropical cyclone ensemble prediction in the prior art is solved, and thereby the initial ensemble members are made to have more pertinence.

The embodiment of the invention discloses a method and device for forecasting tropical cyclone generation frequency, equipment and a storage medium, and the method comprises the steps: carrying out the stepwise regression analysis of the characteristic value of a variable which may influence the tropical cyclone generation and the generation frequency of the tropical cyclone generation, carrying out the inspection, and keeping the variable if the inspection is passed; and forecasting by using a neural network method by using the reserved variable as a characteristic value and the generation frequency generated by the tropical cyclone as a forecast quantity. According to the method for forecasting the tropical cyclone generation frequency provided by the embodiment of the invention, the influence of atmosphere and ocean on tropical cyclones is considered. The mapping relation between the characteristic values and the forecast quantity does not need to be considered, and the nonlinear relation between tropical cyclone generation and the climate background field does not need to be considered. A forecasting model is optimized, and the forecasting accuracy is improved.

The invention relates to an improved method for making a tropical cyclone wind zone. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring the data of time, wind scale and solar halo boundary geographic position of each solar halo of a plurality of known solar halos in a tropical cyclone event; forming a fitting ellipse solar halo or fitting Fourier solar halo by performing the ellipse fitting or Fourier fitting on the boundary of each known solar halo; based on a defined time interval, performing interpolation on the fitting ellipse solar halo or fitting Fourier solar halo at the same wind scale, thereby acquiring a plurality of interpolation solar halos about time density; forming a union set of a plurality of fitting ellipse solar halos at the same wind scale and a plurality of interpolation solar halos thereof, or forming a union set of a plurality of fitting Fourier solar halos at the same wind scale and a plurality of interpolation solar halos thereof, thereby acquiring a tropical cyclone wind zone at the wind scale; and forming the tropical cyclone wind zone of the tropical cyclone event by overlaying the wind zones at various wind scales.

The invention relates to the field of ocean disaster prediction, in particular to a multi-factor fused MOS storm surge process disaster simulation method, which comprises the following steps of (1) carrying out statistical analysis on a tropical cyclonic storm surge disaster historical process, analyzing the characteristic factors of an MOS storm surge model, and establishing the MOS storm surge model; and (2) determining a characteristic factor matrix, taking the characteristic factor matrix as an input, and learning and training by using a support vector machine to realize the tropical cyclone storm surge water increase simulation. According to the method, the error between the simple numerical forecasting and the tide level station actual measurement value can be optimized, and a new process simulation idea is provided for the later refined storm surge forecasting service.

Disclosed herein is a method and system for accelerated dissipation of a tropical cyclone and / or a hurricane specifically as it makes a landfall in order that its strength and access to further geography are significantly reduced in an irreversible manner. A storage tank and pipeline-based system for forcefully dispensing large amounts of cool dry air into the landfalling cyclone and / or hurricane system is the key embodiment proposed herein by which large scale dilution of the cyclone / hurricane fuel (vapor) is achieved. Other embodiments suggest augmenting this system with dry air drawn from adjoining arid or desert territories, and introduction of seeding materials or cloud condensation nuclei.

The invention provides a tropical cyclone objective intensity determination method based on a multi-factor generalized linear model, and the method comprises the steps: 1, extracting characteristic factors of tropical cyclones at each moment, including MMV, RD,S-20,TBBstd, Lat or Lon intensity determination factors; and 2, establishing a relationship between the characteristic factor and the maximum surface wind speed of the tropical cyclone by using a generalized linear model. According to the method, the objective intensity determination precision of the tropical cyclone can be further improved, and technical support is provided for monitoring and early warning of the tropical cyclone.

The present invention provides an experimental device for analyzing atmospheric strong convection meteorological phenomena. The described strong convection meteorological phenomena include tropical cyclone and tornado, etc. Said invention utilizes the water in which the bottom portion of glass tube is immersed and gas analyzer communicated with glass tube to show that the spark discharge can make air produce volume-contracting combination reaction.

The invention provides a method for screening initial members of a tropical cyclone ensemble forecast aiming at physical process disturbance, comprising the following steps: 1) selecting a regional numerical weather prediction mode, and selecting a boundary layer parameterization scheme and a cumulus convection parameterization scheme from the regional numerical weather prediction mode to participate in the design; 2) selecting a typhoon case; 3) pefroming 120-hour numerical simulation for selected typhoon cases; 4) calculating the similarity deviation between the initial members; 5) analyzingand screening similarity of ensemble members; 6) calculating average absolute error. That invention eliminates the similar members step by step by calculating the similarity deviation index, obtainsreasonable ensemble members on the basis of synthetically evaluating and forecasting average error, and solves the problem that the subjectivity is too strong in the selection process of the ensemblemembers based on physical disturbance at present.

The invention provides determining and forecasting methods and determining and forecasting systems for visibility change, caused by tropical cyclone, in a coastal area. The visibility change determining method comprises that historical data, which has influence on the visibility of the area to be measured, of path points of the tropical cyclone as well as historical data of the visibility of the area to be measured in corresponding time are collected; the historical data of the path points of the tropical cyclone is classified according to the strengths, and path point data of different types of tropical cyclones is obtained; a forecast range of the area to be measured is divided into intervals, one path point is reserved for the same tropical cyclone in an interval for each type of tropical cyclone; and the distance and direction of each reserved path point relative to the area to be measured are calculated, interpolation operation is carried out according to the reserved path point, the distance and direction relative to the area to be measured and the visibility, corresponding to the reserved path point, of the area to be measured, and position spatial distribution of the visibility change, caused by different types of tropical cyclones, of the area to be measured is obtained. The methods and systems can be used to solve the problem that forecast tends to be inaccurate due to the fact that qualitative analysis is used in the prior art mainly.

The invention provides a determination method and system, and a forecast method and system for a probability of causing ash haze of a coastal region by tropical cyclones. The determination method comprises the steps of collecting tropical cyclone path point data with influence on the visibility of a to-be-tested region, and visibility and relative humidity data of the to-be-tested region in a corresponding time; performing classification on the tropical cyclone path point data according to the intensities to obtain various types of tropical cyclone path point data; and dividing a prediction range of the to-be-tested region into a plurality of intervals, reserving a path point of a same tropical cyclone in the intervals for the tropical cyclone under each intensity, calculating the probability of causing the ash haze of the to-be-tested region by the tropical cyclone in the intervals according to the reserved path point data and the visibility data of the corresponding to-be-tested region, and performing interpolation operation according to longitude and latitude of a predetermined position in the intervals and the probability of causing the ash haze of the to-be-tested region by the tropical cyclone under each intensity in the intervals, thereby obtaining probability distribution of causing the ash haze of the to-be-tested region by the tropical cyclones under all the intensities. According to the determination method and system, and the forecast method and system, a reliable basis can be provided for weather predicting and alarming of influence of the tropical cyclones on the ash haze.

The invention provides a tropical cyclone potential impact evaluation method based on a comprehensive intensity index. The method comprises the following steps: (1) dividing plane space into latitude-longitude grids of which the sizes are 2 degrees * 2 degrees, and carrying out statistics of the inter-decade path orientation time level of a tropical cyclone path passing each grid according to an inter-decade scale; (2) calculating the energy dissipation exponential value of a tropical cyclone in each time level in each grid, and accumulating the energy dissipation exponential values of the tropical cyclone in all time levels in the grid to obtain the grid inter-decade energy dissipation exponential value of the grid, wherein the grid inter-decade energy dissipation exponential value serves as an index reflecting the comprehensive intensity of the tropical cyclone; (3) acquiring a grid inter-decade path comparison orientation time level corresponding to each level of tropical cyclones at each magnitude of grid inter-decade energy dissipation exponential values according to the mean wind speed of all levels of tropical cyclones; and (4) building potential impact levels of the tropical cyclones, and evaluating potential impacts of the tropical cyclones on different regions. The tropical cyclone potential impact evaluation method can effectively evaluate the potential impacts of the tropical cyclones, and has important values in defending against tropical cyclone disasters and improving tropical cyclone disaster forecasting level.