Tropical cyclone full path simulation method facing disaster risk assessment

Abstract

The invention relates to a tropical cyclone full path simulation method facing disaster risk assessment. The tropical cyclone full path simulation method comprises concrete steps: a first step of establishing a start point model, and taking samples to simulate yearly occurrence frequency of tropical cyclones and generate start point information; a second step of establishing a marching model, and simulating the moving speed and orientation of the tropical cyclones to form a tropical cyclone path; a third step of establishing strength models including an ocean surface strength development model and a land strength attenuation model, and selecting the corresponding strength model in dependence on the latitude and longitude of the next point in the tropical cyclone path; a fourth step of examining the path simulation result, and carrying out statistical result examination and statistical rule analysis on the randomly-generated tropical cyclone path and the strength large sample; and a fifth step of establishing a typhoon wind field engineering model and a boundary layer model, calibrating wind field model key parameters, calculating the typhoon wind speed on the simulated point, and carrying out typhoon risk disaster assessment. The tropical cyclone full path simulation method facing disaster risk assessment can achieve refined evaluation, and is accurate and reliable in result, high in calculating efficiency and wide in application scope.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of wind resistance performance design of engineering structures, in particular to a method for simulating the full path of a tropical cyclone oriented to disaster risk assessment. Background technique [0002] Typhoons are a category of tropical cyclones. In meteorology, according to the definition of the World Meteorological Organization: the sustained wind speed of the tropical cyclone center reaches level 12 (that is, 32.7 meters per second or above) is called a hurricane (hurricane), the name of the hurricane is used in the North Atlantic and the East Pacific; and the Northwest Pacific is used A synonym for typhoon is typhoon. In Taiwan, Japan, and other places, tropical cyclones with a central sustained wind speed of more than 17.2 meters per second are called typhoons. A well-developed typhoon is divided into three parts according to its structure and the weather it brings: the typhoon eye, the vortex wind and...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, in some areas along the southeast coast of China, such as Zhejiang Province, the overall samples of tropical cyclone events are very small, and the records of transiting typhoons screened by the simulated circle method are not enough to establish a probability model of key typhoon parameters in this area

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